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Paket Umroh 2015

Biro Travel Umroh Jakarta Melayani Biaya Harga Paket Umroh Murah Promo Hemat dan Plus Turki Desember 2015 - Januari | Februari | Maret | April 2016. Paket Umroh 2015

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SYARIAT IBADAH HAJI DARI NABI-NABI

Haji dan umrah adalah ritual keagamaan yang sejak lama sudah dikenal oleh manusia. Meski ibadah tersebut kini identik dengan umat Islam, namun sebenarnya umat nabi-nabi terdahulu sudah lebih dulu melaksanakannya.

Ibadah haji sudah dikenal sejak zaman Nabi Adam AS, namun pelaksanaannya masih sangat sederhana dan jauh berbeda dibandingkan dengan ibadah haji yang dilakukan oleh umat Islam saat ini. Menurut Ibnu Abbas RA, setelah membangun Kabah, Adam AS berputar mengelilinginya hingga tujuh kali putaran.

Menurut Abdullah Ibnu Abi Sulaiman, setelah merampungkan tawaf tujuh kali, Adam mengerjakan shalat dua rakaat di depan pintu Kabah dan kemudian berdoa di pintu Multazam. Dalam berbagai riwayat, doa-doa yang dipanjatkan oleh Nabi Adam AS sangat beragam, namun intinya sama, yaitu permohonan kepada Allah SWT agar bersedia mengampuni dosa-dosanya.

Di samping itu ia juga meminta agar anak-cucunya didatangkan untuk berhaji ke Baitullah, dipenuhi segala kebutuhan hidupnya, diteguhkan imannya, dan dibimbing agar senantiasa ridha menerima cobaan atau musibah yang menimpanya.

Beberapa utusan Allah yang hidup pasca Nabi Adam AS seperti Nuh AS, Hud AS, dan Shaleh AS juga mengerjakan ibadah haji ke Baitullah namun dengan tata cara yang tidak sama. Perbedaan tata cara itu disebabkan oleh latar belakang waktu dan tempat di mana nabi-nabi itu diutus berbeda-beda.

Syariat yang dibawa oleh nabi-nabi terus berkembang menuju titik kesempurnaan, dan di tangan Nabi Muhammad SAW kesempurnaan itu akhirnya terwujud. Meski ritual haji di antara para nabi berbeda-beda, akidah atau keyakinan mereka tetap sama, yaitu beriman kepada Tuhan Yang Mahaesa.

Sumber : Republika.co.id

Baca Artikel Lainnya : TANAH SUCI YNG DAMAI

> SYARIAT IBADAH HAJI DARI NABI-NABI

Bom Bunuh Diri di Poso Diperkirakan Terkait Badri atau Basri?

JAKARTA, Saco-Indonesia.com — Aparat kepolisian belum dapat memastikan apakah pelaku bom bunuh diri di Markas Polres Poso, Sulawesi Tengah, Senin (3/6/2013), terkait dengan kelompok Solo pimpinan Badri Hartono.

"Kami belum dapat memastikan karena Densus masih mendalami," kata Kepala Divisi Humas Polri Inspektur Jenderal Suhardi Alius di Jakarta, Senin (3/6/2013).

Suhardi menambahkan, aparat kepolisian juga belum dapat memastikan apakah ledakan bom bunuh diri itu terkait dengan terpidana kasus terorisme yang melarikan diri dari lembaga pemasyarakatan di Sulteng, Basri.

Seperti diberitakan sebelumnya, bom bunuh diri terjadi di antara pos jaga Mapolres Poso dan masjid pada pukul 08.03 Wita. Pelaku awalnya memasuki halaman Mapolres Poso menggunakan sepeda motor seorang diri. Tak lama setelah itu, bom pun meledak. Pelaku dan motor yang dikendarainya hancur.

 
Editor :Liwon Maulana
Sumber:Kompas.com
> Bom Bunuh Diri di Poso Diperkirakan Terkait Badri atau Basri?

PENYEDIA JASA TRANSPORTASI SEWA MOBIL DAN BUS

Salam hangat dari Jepun Bali Car Rental,

Jepun Bali Car Rental adalah penyedia jasa sewa mobil murah terbaik di Bali. Spesialisasi kami adalah untuk dapat menyediakan pelayanan transportasi sewa mobil dengan sistem point-to-point Airport, Hotel, dan personal atau group transportasi, baik dalam rangka perjalanan wisata ataupun untuk tujuan Bisinis di Bali.

Supir-supir profesional kami dari Jepun Bali car Rental dengan senang hati akan mengantarkan anda ke tujuan untuk berbagai kerperluan seperti executive meeting, outing perusahaan, atau pun untuk berwisata.

Jepun Bali Car Rental dengan cepat membangun reputasinya dalam bidang usaha transportasi khususnya dalam bidang sewa mobil di Bali. Anda juga dapat menghubungi kami melalui telephone ataupun e-mail untuk dapat mengalami komitmen kami untuk selalu memberikan pelayanan yang terbaik, dan anda pun akan mengerti mengapa client-client kami mempercayakan pilihannya kepada kami dalam hal jasa transportasi sewa mobil di Bali.
 
Jepun Bali Car Rental sangat mengerti bahwa waktu dari client kami adalah hal yang sangat penting. Sebagai penyedia sarana transportasi sewa mobil profesional di Bali, team kami akan memastikan anda akan sampai ke tujuan dengan nyaman, aman dan tepat waktu.

Sebagai penyedia sarana transportasi sewa mobil, Jepun Bali Car Rental menawarkan jenis-jenis pelayanan sebagai berikut :

    Pelayanan penjeputan dan pengembalian mobil di Airport ataupun Hotel
    Sewa mobil untuk di kemudikan sendiri (tanpa supir)
    Jasa sewa mobil dalam jangka waktu pendek dan panjang
    Paket sewa mobil untuk personal atau group
    Pembebasan biaya atas pengantaran dan pengembalian mobil yang di sewa
    Jasa sewa mobil dengan supir yang profesional dan berpengalaman dalam jasa layanan transportasi personal dan eksekutif
    Charter Bus Pariwisata

Mengapa memilih jasa sewa mobil dari Jepun Bali Car Rental ?

    Jepun Bali Car Rental adalah mitra anda yang dapat dipercaya
    Kepuasan anda adalah prioritas utama dari Jepun Bali Car Rental
    Jepun Bali Car Rental memberikan pelayanan yang aman dan terjamin
    Jepun Bali Car Rental selalu menyediakan model mobil - mobil terbaru dengan kondisi mobil yang terawat secara teratur
    Jepun Bali Car Rental menyediakan fasilitas mobil pengganti apabila terjadi kerusakan atau kecelakaan
    Mobil-mobil yang kami sewakan telah di asuransikan
    Jepun Bali Car Rental telah terdaftar di institusi publik

Silahkan anda membuka halaman Harga Sewa Mobil kami untuk mengetahui berbagai jenis type mobil yang kami tawarkan

> PENYEDIA JASA TRANSPORTASI SEWA MOBIL DAN BUS

OLAH DATA ORDINAL MENJADI INTERVAL

 Data yang dikumpulkan mahasiwa ketika akan membuat tugas akhir, selain data sekunder diantaranya adalah data primer. Data sekunder adalah data yang diperoleh dari catatan-catatan atau informasi tertulis dari perusahaan, serta data-data lain yang terdokumentasi dengan baik dan valid. Sedangkan data primer adalah data yang direspon langsung oleh responden berdasarkan wawancara ataupun daftar pertanyaan yang dirancang, disusun, dan disajikan dalam bentuk skala, baik nominal, ordinal, interval maupun ratio oleh mahasiswa ketika membutuhkan data demi kepentingan penelitian.

Teknik pengumpulan data seperti ini lazim digunakan karena selain bisa langsung menentukan skala pengukuranya, akan tetapi juga bisa melengkapi hasil wawancara yang dilakukan dengan responden.

Skala pengukuran yang dibuat oleh mahasiswa sebaiknya dibuat sedemikian rupa, mengikuti kaidah, sehingga akan memudahkan pemilihan teknik analisis yang akan digunakan ketika pengumpulan datanya sudah selesai.

Catatan: Artikel ini membahas bagaimana transformasi dari data ordinal ke interval, sedangkan untuk transformasi data dalam keperluan untuk memenuhi asumsi klasik, baca artikel kami yang berjudul "Transformasi Data"

Dalam studi empiris, misalnya saja mahasiswa ingin menggunakan statistika parametrik dengan analisis regresi untuk menganalisis dan mengkaji masalah-masalah penelitian. Pemilihan analisis model ini ini hanya lazim digunakan bila skala pengukuran yang yang dilakukan adalah minimal interval. Sedangkan teknik pengumpulan data yang dilakukan oleh mahasiswa sudah dilakukan dengan menggunakan skala pengukuran nominal (atau ordinal).

Menghadapi situasi demikian, salah satu cara yang dilakukan adalah menaikkan tingkat pengukuran skalanya dari ordinal menjadi interval. Melakukan manipulasi data dengan cara menaikkan skala dari ordinal menjadi interval ini, selain bertujuan untuk tidak melanggar kelaziman, juga untuk mengubah agar syarat distribusi normal bisa dipenuhi ketika menggunakan statistika parametrik.

Menurut Sambas Ali Muhidin dan Maman Abdurahman, “salah satu metode transformasi yang sering digunakan adalah metode succesive interval (MSI)”. Meskipun banyak perdebatan tentang metode ini, diharapkan pemikiran ini bisa melengkapi wacana mahasiswa ketika akan melakukan analisis data berkenaan dengan tugas-tugas kuliah.

Sebelum melanjutkan pembahasan tentang bagaimana transformasi data ordinal dilakukan, tulisan ini sedikit membahas tentang dua perbedaan pendapat tentang bagimana skor-skor yang diberikan terhadap alternatif jawaban pada skala pengukuran Likert yang sudah kita kenal. Pendapat pertama mengatakan bahwa skor 1, 2, 3, 4, dan 5 adalah data interval. Sedangkan pendapat yang kedua, menyatakan bahwa jenis skala pengukuran Likert adalah ordinal. Alasannya skala Likert merupakan Skala Interval adalah karena skala sikap merupakan dan menempatkan kedudukan sikap seseorang pada kesatuan perasaan kontinum yang berkisar dari sikap “sangat positif”, artinya mendukung terhadap suatu objek psikologis terhadap objek penelitian, dan sikap “sangat negatif”, yang tidak mendukung sama sekali terhadap objek psikologis terhadap objek penelitian.

Berkenaan dengan perbedaan pendapat terhadap skor-skor yang diberikan dalam alternatif jawaban dalam skala Likert itu, apakah termasuk dalam skala pengukuran ordinal atau data interval, berikut ini kami mneyampaikan pemikiran yang bisa dijadikan pertimbangan: Ciri spesifik yang dimiliki oleh data yang diperoleh dengan skala pengukuran ordinal, adalah bahwa, data ordinal merupakan jenis data kualitatif, bukan numerik, berupa kata-kata atau kalimat, seperti misalnya sangat setuju, kurang setuju, dan tidak setuju, jika pertanyaannya ditujukan terhadap persetujuan tentang suatu event. Atau bisa juga respon terhadap keberadaan suatu Bank “PQR” dalam suatu daerah yang bisa dimulai dari sangat tidak setuju, tidak setuju, ragu-ragu, Setuju, dan sangat setuju.

Sementara data interval adalah termasuk data kuantitatif, berbentuk numerik, berupa angka, bukan terdiri dari kata-kata, atau kalimat. Mahasiswa yang melakukan penelitian dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif, termasuk di dalamnya adalah data interval, data yang diperoleh dari hasil pengumpulan data bisa langsung diolah dengan menggunakan model statistika. Akan tetapi data yang diperoleh dengan pengukuran skala ordinal, berbentuk kata-kata, kalimat, penyataan, sebelum diolah, perlu memberikan kode numerik, atau simbol berupa angka dalam setiap jawaban.

Misalnya saja alternatif jawaban pada skala Likert, alternatif jawaban “sangat tidak setuju” diberi skor 1; “ tidak setuju diberi skor 2; “ragu-ragu” diberi skor 3; “setuju” diberi kode 4; dan “sangat setuju” diberi skor 5. angka-angka (numerik) inilah yang kemudian diolah, sehingga menghasilkan skor tertentu. Tetapi, sesuai dengan sifat dan cirinya, angka 1, 2, 3, 4, dan 5 atau skor yang sudah diperoleh tidak memberikan arti apa-apa terhadap objek yang diukur. Dengan kata lain, skor yang lebih tinggi lebih tidak berarti lebih baik dari skor yang lebih rendah. Skor 1 hanya menunjukkan sikap “sangat tidak setuju”, skor 2 menunjukkan sikap “tidak setuju, skor 3 menunjukkan sikap “ragu-ragu’, skor 4 menunjukkan sikap “setuju”, dan skor 5 menunjukkan sikap “sangat setuju”. Kita tidak bisa mengatakan bahwa skor 4 atau “setuju” dua kali lebih baik dari skor 2 atau “tidak setuju”.

Fenomena ini berbeda sekali dengan sifat/ciri yang dimiliki oleh data interval, dimana angka-angka atau skor-skor numerik yang diperoleh dari hasil pengukuran data langsung dapat dibandingkan antara satu dengan lainnya, dikurangkan, dijumlahkan, dibagi dan dikalikan. Misalnya saja penelitian yang dilakukan mahasiswa tentang suhu udara beberapa kelas, dan diperoleh data misalnya suhu ruangan kelas A 15 derajat Cls, suhu ruang kelas B 20 derajat Cls, dan suhu ruang kelas C 25 derajat Cls. Berarti bahwa suhu ruang kelas A adalah 75 % lebih dingin dari suhu ruang kelas B. Suhu ruang kelas A 60 % lebih dingin dari suhu ruang kelas C. Suhu ruang kelas A lebih dingin dari suhu ruang kelas B dan C. Atau suhu ruangan kelas B lebih panas dari suhu ruang kelas A, tetapi lebih dingin dibandingkan dengan suhu ruangan kelas C. Contoh lain misalnya prestasi mahasiswa yang diukur dengan skala indek prestasi mahasiswa.

KEPUSTAKAAN
Babbie, Earl R., The Pravtice of Social Research, 4th Edition, Belmont, CA, Wadsworth,
1986. Kerlinger, F.N., Foundation of Behavioral Research, 2nd Ed., New York, MacMillan, 1971.
Moh nazir, Ph.d. Metode Penelitian, Penerbit Ghalia Indonesia, Jakarta, 2005).


TRANSFORMASI DATA ORDINAL menjadi INTERVAL SECARA MANUAL
(Kasus Transformasi Data Ordinal Menjadi Interval)
Oleh: Suharto*

A. Pendahuluan
Beberapa ahli berpendapat bahwa pelaksanaan penelitian menggunakan metode ilmiah diantaranya adalah dengan melakukan langkah-langkah sistematis. Metode ilmiah sendiri adalah merupakan pengejaran terhadap kebenaran relatif yang diatur oleh pertimbangan-pertimbangan logis. Dan karena keberadaan dari ilmu itu adalah untuk memperoleh interelasi yang sistematis dari fakta-fakta, maka metode ilmiah berkehendak untuk mencari jawaban tentang fakta-fakta dengan menggunakan pendekatan kesangsian sistematis. Karenanya, penelitian dan metode ilmiah, jika tidak dikatakan sama, mempunyai hubungan yang relatif dekat. Dengan adanya metode ilmiah, pertanyaan-pertanyaan dalam mencari dalil umum, akan mudah dijawab. Menuruti Schluter (Moh Nazir), langkah penting sebelum sampai tahapan analisis data dan penentuan model adalah ketika melakukan pengumpulan dan manipulasi data sehingga bisa digunakan bagi keperluan pengujian hipotesis. Mengadakan manipulasi data berarti mengubah data mentah dari awal menjadi suatu bentuk yang dapat dengan mudah memperlihatkan hubungan-hubungan antar fenomena. Kelaziman kuantifikasi sebaiknya dilakukan kecuali bagi atribut-atribut yang tidak dapat dilakukan. Dan dari kuantifikasi data itu, penentuan mana yang dikatakan data nominal, ordinal, ratio dan interval bisa dilakukan demi memasuki wilayah penentuan model.

Pada ilmu-ilmu sosial yang telah lebih berkembang, melakukan analisis berdasarkan pada kerangka hipotesis ilakukan dengan membuat model matematis untuk membangun refleksi hubungan antar fenomena yang secara implisit sudah dilakukan dalam rumusan hipotesis  Analisis data merupakan bagian yang amat penting dalam metode ilmiah. Data bisa memiliki makna setelah dilakukan analisis dengan menggunakan model yang lazim digunakan dan sudah diuji secara ilmiah meskipun memiliki banyak peluang untuk digunakan. Akan tetapi masing-masing model, jika ditelaah satu demi satu, sebenarnya hanya sebagian saja yang bisa digunakan untuk kondisi dan data tertentu. Ia tidak bisa digunakan untuk menganalisis data jika model yang digunakan kurang sesuai dengan bagaimana kita memperoleh data jika menggunakan instrumen. Timbangan tidak bisa digunakan untuk mengukur tinggi badan seseorang. Sebaliknya meteran tidak bisa digunakan untuk mengukur berat badan seseorang. Karena masing-masing instrumen memiliki kegunaan masing-masing. Dalam hal ini, tentu saja kita tidak ingin menggunakan model analisis hanya semata-mata karena menuruti selera dan kepentingan. Suatu model hanya lazim digunakan tergantung dari kondisi bagaimana data dikumpulkan.

Karena pada dasarnya, model adalah alat yang bisa digunakan dalam kondisi dan data apapun. Ia tetap bisa digunakan untuk menghitung secara matematis, akan tetapi tidak dalam teori. Banyaknya konsumsi makanan tentu memiliki hubungan dengan berat badan seseorang. Akan tetapi banyaknya konsumsi makanan penduduk pulau Nias, tidak akan pernah memiliki hubungan dengan berat badan penduduk Kalimantan. Motivasi kerja sebuah perusahaan elektronik, tidak akan memiliki hubungan dengan produktivitas petani karet.

Model analisis statistik hanya bisa digunakan jika data yang diperoleh memiliki syarat-syarat tertentu. Masing-masing variabel tidak memiliki hubungan linier yang eksak. Data yang kita peroleh melalui instrumen pengumpul data itu bisa dianalisis dengan menggunakan model tanpa melanggar kelaziman. Bagi keperluan analisis penelitian ilmu-ilmu sosial, teknik mengurutkan sesuatu ke dalam skala itu artinya begitu penting mengingat sebagian data dalam ilmu-ilmu sosial mempunyai sifat kualitatif. Atribut saja sebagai objek penelitian selain kurang representatif bagi peneliti, juga sebagian orang saat ini menginginkan gradasi yang lebih baik bagi objek penelitian. Orang selain kurang begitu puas dengan atribut baik atau buruk, setuju atau tidak setuju, tetapi juga menginginkan sesuatu yang berada di antara baik dan buruk atau di antara setuju dan tidak setuju. Karena gradasi, merupakan kelaziman yang diminta bagi sebagian orang bisa menguak secara detail objek penelitian. Semakin banyak gradasi yang dibuat dalam instrumen penelitian, hasilnya akan makin representatif.

Menuruti Moh. Nazir, teknik membuat skala adalah cara mengubah fakta-fakta kualitatif (atribut) menjadi suatu urutan kuantitatif (variabel). Mengubah fakta-fakta kualitatif menjadi urutan kuantitatif itu telah menjadi satu kelaziman paling tidak bagi sebagian besar orang, karena berbagai alasan. Pertama, eksistensi matematika sebagai alat yang lebih cenderung digunakan oleh ilmu-ilmu pengetahuan sehingga bisa mengundang kuantitatif variabel. Kedua, ilmu pengetahuan, disamping akurasi data, semakin meminta presisi yang lebih baik, lebih-lebih dalam mengukur gradasi. Karena perlunya presisi, maka kita belum tentu puas dengan atribut baik atau buruk saja. Sebagian peneliti ingin mengukur sifat-sifat yang ada antara baik dan buruk tersebut, sehingga diperoleh suatu skala gradasi yang jelas.

B. Pembahasan
a. Data nominal
Sebelum kita membicarakan bagaimana alat analisis digunakan, akan diberikan ulasan tentang bagaimana sebenarnya data nominal yang sering digunakan dalam statistik nonparametrik bagi mahasiswa. Menuruti Moh. Nazir, data nominal adalah ukuran yang paling sederhana, dimana angka yang diberikan kepada objek mempunyai arti sebagai label saja, dan tidak menunjukkan tingkatan apapun. Ciri-ciri data nominal adalah hanya memiliki atribut, atau nama, atau diskrit. Data nominal merupakan data kontinum dan tidak memiliki urutan. Bila objek dikelompokkan ke dalam set-set, dan kepada semua anggota set diberikan angka, set-set tersebut tidak boleh tumpang tindih dan bersisa. Misalnya tentang jenis olah raga yakni tenis, basket dan renang. Kemudian masing-masing anggota set di atas kita berikan angka, misalnya tenis (1), basket (2) dan renang (3). Jelas kelihatan bahwa angka yang diberikan tidak menunjukkan bahwa tingkat olah raga basket lebih tinggi dari tenis ataupun tingkat renang lebih tinggi dari tenis. Angka tersebut tidak memberikan arti apa-apa jika ditambahkan. Angka yang diberikan hanya berfungsi sebagai label saja. Begitu juga tentang suku, yakni Dayak, Bugis dan Badui. Tentang partai, misalnya Partai Bulan, Partai Bintang dan Partai Matahari. Masing-masing kategori tidak dinyatakan lebih tinggi dari atribut (nama) yang lain. Seseorang yang pergi ke Jakarta, tidak akan pernah mengatakan dua setengah kali, atau tiga seperempat kali. Tetapi akan mengatakan dua kali, lima kali, atau tujuh kali. Begitu seterusnya. Tidak akan pernah ada bilangan pecahan. Data nominal ini diperoleh dari hasil pengukuran dengan skala nominal. Menuruti Sugiono, alat analisis (uji hipotesis asosiatif) statistik nonparametrik yang digunakan untuk data nominal adalah Coeffisien Contingensi  Akan tetapi karena pengujian hipotesis  Coeffisien Contingensi memerlukan rumus Chi Square (χ2), perhitungannya dilakukan setelah kita menghitung Chi Square. Penggunaan model statistik nonparametrik selain Coeffisien Contingensi tidak lazim dilakukan.

b. Data ordinal
Bagian lain dari data kontinum adalah data ordinal. Data ini, selain memiliki nama (atribut), juga memiliki peringkat atau urutan. Angka yang diberikan mengandung tingkatan. Ia digunakan untuk mengurutkan objek dari yang paling rendah sampai yang paling tinggi atau sebaliknya. Ukuran ini tidak memberikan nilai absolut terhadap objek, tetapi hanya memberikan peringkat saja. Jika kita memiliki sebuah set objek yang dinomori, dari 1 sampai n, misalnya peringkat 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 dan seterusnya, bila dinyatakan dalam skala, maka jarak antara data yang satu dengan lainnya tidak sama. Ia akan memiliki urutan mulai dari yang paling tinggi sampai paling rendah. Atau paling baik sampai ke yang paling buruk.

Misalnya dalam skala Likert (Moh Nazir), mulai dari sangat setuju, setuju, ragu-ragu, tidak setuju sampai sangat tidak setuju. Atau jawaban pertanyaan tentang kecenderungan masyarakat untuk menghadiri rapat umum pemilihan kepala daerah, mulai dari tidak pernah absen menghadiri, dengan kode 5, kadang-kadang saja menghadiri, dengan kode 4, kurang menghadiri, dengan kode 3, tidak pernah menghadiri, dengan kode 2 sampai tidak ingin menghadiri sama sekali, dengan kode 1. Dari hasil pengukuran dengan menggunakan skala ordinal ini akan diperoleh data ordinal. Alat analisis (uji hipotesis asosiatif  statistik nonparametrik yang lazim digunakan untuk data ordinal adalah Spearman Rank Correlation dan Kendall Tau.

c. Data interval
Pemberian angka kepada set dari objek yang mempunyai sifat-sifat ukuran ordinal dan ditambah satu sifat lain, yakni jarak yang sama pada pengukuran dinamakan data interval. Data ini memperlihatkan jarak yang sama dari ciri atau sifat objek yang diukur. Akan tetapi ukuran interval tidak memberikan jumlah absolut dari objek yang diukur. Data yang diperoleh dari hasil pengukuran menggunakan skala interval dinamakan data interval.

Misalnya tentang nilai ujian 6 orang mahasiswa, yakni A, B, C, D, E dan F diukur dengan ukuran interval pada skala prestasi dengan ukuran 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 dan 6, maka dapat dikatakan bahwa beda prestasi antara C dan A adalah 3 – 1 = 2. Beda prestasi antara C dan F adalah 6 – 3 = 3. Akan tetapi tidak bisa dikatakan bahwa prestasi E adalah 5 kali prestasi A ataupun prestasi F adalah 3 kali lebih baik dari prestasi B. Dari hasil pengukuran dengan menggunakan skala interval ini akan diperoleh data interval. Alat analisis (uji hipotesis asosiatif)  statistik parametrik yang lazim digunakan untuk data interval ini adalah Pearson Korelasi Product Moment, Partial Correlation, Multiple Correlation, Partial Regression, dan Multiple Regression.

d. Data ratio
Ukuran yang meliputi semua ukuran di atas ditambah dengan satu sifat yang lain, yakni ukuran yang memberikan keterangan tentang nilai absolut dari objek yang diukur dinamakan ukuran ratio. Ukuran ratio memiliki titik nol, karenanya, interval jarak tidak dinyatakan dengan beda angka rata-rata satu kelompok dibandingkan dengan titik nol di atas. Oleh karena ada titik nol, maka ukuran rasio dapat dibuat perkalian ataupun pembagian. Angka pada skala rasio dapat menunjukkan nilai sebenarnya dari objek yang diukur. Jika ada 4 orang pengemudi, A, B, C dan D mempunyai pendapatan masing-masing perhari Rp. 10.000, Rp.30.000, Rp. 40.000 dan Rp. 50.000. bila dilihat dengan ukuran rasio maka pendapatan pengemudi C adalah 4 kali pendapatan pengemudi A. Pendapatan D adalah 5 kali pendapatan A. Pendapatan C adalah 4/3 kali pendapatan B. Dengan kata lain, rasio antara C dan A adalah 4 : 1, rasio antara D dan A adalah 5 : 1, sedangkan rasio antara C dan B adalah 4 : 3. Interval pendapatan pengemudi A dan C adalah 30.000. dan pendapatan pengemudi C adalah 4 kali pendapatan pengemudi A.

Dari hasil pengukuran dengan menggunakan skala rasio ini akan diperoleh data rasio. Alat analisis (uji hipotesis asosiatif)  yang digunakan adalah statistik parametrik dan yang lazim digunakan untuk data rasio ini adalah Pearson Korelasi Product Moment, Partial Correlation, Multiple Correlation, Partial Regression, dan Multiple Regression. Sesuai dengan ulasan jenis pengukuran yang digunakan, maka variabel penelitian diharapkan dapat bagi 4 bagian, yakni variabel nominal, variabel ordinal, variabel interval, dan variabel rasio. Variabel nominal, yaitu variabel yang dikategorikan secara diskrit dan saling terpisah seperti status perkawinan, jenis kelamin, dan sebagainya. Variabel ordinal adalah variabel yang disusun atas dasar peringkat, seperti peringkat prestasi mahasiswa, peringkat perlombaan catur, peringkat tingkat kesukaran suatu pekerjaan dan lain-lain.

Variabel interval adalah variabel yang diukur dengan ukuran interval seperti penghasilan, sikap dan sebagainya, sedangkan variabel rasio adalah variabel yang disusun dengan ukuran rasio seperti tingkat penganggguran, dan sebagainya.

e. Konversi variabel ordinal
Adakalanya kita tidak ingin menguji hipotesis dengan alat uji hipotesis statistik nonparametrik dengan berbagai pertimbangan. Misalnya kita ingin melakukan uji statistik parametrik Pearson Korelasi Product Moment, Partial Correlation, Multiple Correlation, Partial Regression dan Multiple Regression, padahal data yang kita miliki adalah hasil pengukuran dengan skala ordinal, sedangkan persyaratan penggunaan statistik parametrik adalah selain data harus berbentuk interval atau rasio, data harus memiliki distribusi normal. Jika kita tidak ingin melakukan ujinormalitas karena data yang kita miliki adalah data ordinal, hal itu bisa saja kita lakukan dengan cara menaikkan data dari pengukuran skala ordinal menjadi data dalam skala interval dengan metode Suksesive Interval.

Menuruti Al-Rasyid, menaikkan data dengan skala ordinal menjadi skala interval dinamakan transformasi dengan menggunakan metode Suksesiv Interval. Penggunaan skala interval bagi kepentingan statistik parametrik, selain merupakan suatu kelaziman, juga untuk mengubah data agar memiliki sebaran normal. Transformasi menggunakan model ini berarti tidak perlu melakukan uji normalitas. Karena salah satu syarat penggunaan statistik parametrik, selain data harus memiliki skala interval (dan ratio), data harus memiliki distribusi normal. Berbeda dengan statistik nonparametrik, ia hanya digunakan untuk mengukur distribusi. (Ronald E. Walpole).

Berikut ini diberikan contoh sederhana bagaimana kita meningkatkan data hasil pengukuran dengan skala ordinal menjadi data interval dengan metode Suksesiv Interval. Sebenarnya data ini lazimnya hanya dianalisis dengan statistik nonparametrik. Akan tetapi oleh karena model yang diinginkan adalah statistik parametrik, data tersebut ditingkatkan skalanya menjadi data interval dengan menggunakan metode Suksesive Interval, sehingga di dapat dua jenis data yakni data ordinal dan data interval hasil transformasi. Tabel berikut ini adalah konversi variabel ordinal menjadi variabel interval yang disajikan secara simultan. Data ordinal berukuran 100.


Tabel 1.
Proses Konversi Variabel Ordinal menjadi Variabel Interval
1. Pemilih jawaban (kolom 1) atau kategori dan jumlahnya dibuat dari hasil kuisioner fiktif.

2. Masing-masing frekuensi setiap masing-masing kategori dijumlahkan (kolom 2) menjadi jumlah frekuensi.

3. Kolom proporsi (kolom 3) nomor 1 diisi dengan cara, misalnya yang memilih kategori 1 jumlah responden 25 orang, maka proporsinya adalah (25 : 100) = 0,25. Kolom proporsi no 2 diisi dengan cara, kategori 2 dengan jumlah responden 17 orang, maka proporsinya adalah (17 : 100) = 0,17. Kolom proporsi nomor 3 diisi dengan cara, kategori 3 dengan jumlah responden 34 orang, proporsinya adalah (34 : 100) = 0,34. Kemudian kolom proporsi nomor 4 dengan jumlah responden 19 orang, proporsinya dihitung dengan cara (19 : 100) = 0,19, begitu seterusnya sampai ditemukan angka 0,05.

4. Proporsi kumulatif (kolom 4) diisi dengan cara menjumlahkan secara kumulatif item yang ada pada kolom no 3 (proporsi). Misalnya 0,25 + 0,17 = 0,42. Kemudian nilai 0,42 + 0,34 = 0,76. Lalu 0,76 + 0,19 = 0,95. Dan terakhir adalah 0,95 + 0,05 = 1,00. 5. Kolom 5 (Nilai Z), diisi dengan cara melihat tabel Distribusi Normal (Lampiran 1).

Misalnya angka (– 0,67), diperoleh dari luas 0,2500 (tabel Z) terletak di Z yang ke berapa. Jika tidak ada angka yang pas, cari nilai yang terdekat dengan luas 0,2500. Dalam hal ini angka 0,2514 (terdekat dengan angka 0,2500) terletak di Z ke 0,67. Karena angka 0,25 berada di bawah 0,5, maka beri tanda negatif didepannya. Berikutnya adalah angka (– 0,20), diperoleh dari luas (angka) 0,4200 (tabel Z) terletak di Z ke berapa. Jika tidak ada angka yang sama dengan 0,4200, cari nilai yang terdekat dengan angka 0,4200 dalam tabel Z. Dalam contoh ini, angka 0,4207 (terdekat dengan 0,4200) terletak di Z ke 0,2. Karena angka 0,42 berada di bawah 0,5, maka beri tanda negatif di depannya. Kemudian angka (0,71), diperoleh dari luas distribusi normal (angka) 0,7600 (tabel Z). Angka ini harus dihitung dengan jalan menjumlahkan setengah dari luas distribusi normal, yakni (0,5 + 0,26) = 0,76. Untuk mencapai angka 1,0000, berarti ada kekurangan sebesar 0,2400. Tabel Z yang terdekat dengan angka 0,2400 adalah 0,2389 yang terletak di Z ke 0,71. Berikutnya adalah angka (1,64). Angka ini diperoleh dari luas distribusi normal (angka) 0,9500 (tabel Z). Angka ini juga harus dihitung dengan cara menjumlahkan setengah dari luas distribusi normal, yakni (0,5 + 0,45) = 0,95. Untuk mencapai luas 100% (angka 1,000), distribusi ini ada kekurangan sebesar 0,0500. Tabel Z yang terdekat dengan angka 0,0500 adalah 0,0505 (Z ke 1,64) dan 0,495 (Z ke 165) . Oleh karena angka tersebut memiliki nilai sama, maka kita hanya memilih salah satu, yakni di Z ke 1,645. Nilai ordinat (kolom 6) dapat dilihat pada tabel Ordinat Kurva Normal. Angka 0,3187 bersesuaian dengan P 0,25 (kolom 4). Angka 0,3910 bersesuaian dengan P 0,42 (kolom 4). Kemudian angka 0,3101 bersesuaian dengan P 0,76. (1 – P) = 0,24 (kolom 4). Artinya nilai 0,3101 bersesuaian dengan P 0,24. Dst....

Kolom 7
(nilai skala) dicari dengan rumus :
-------------->Kepadatan pd batas bawah – kepadatan pd batas atas
Nilai Skala = ---------------------------------------------------------------
--------------->Daerah di bwh bts atas – daerah di bwh bts bawah
------------------>0,0000 – 0,3187
Nilai skala 1 = ------------------------ = – 1,2748
--------------------->0,25 – 0,00
------------------>0,3187 – 0,3910
Nilai skala 2 = ------------------------ = – 0,4253
--------------------->0,42 – 0,25
------------------>0,3919 – 0,3101
Nilai skala 3 = ------------------------ = 0,2379
--------------------->0,76 – 0,42
------------------>0,3101 – 0,1040
Nilai skala 4 = ------------------------ = 1,0847
--------------------->0,95 – 0,76
------------------>0,1040 – 0,0000
Nilai skala 5 = ------------------------ = 2,0800
--------------------->1,00 – 0,95


Angka yang diperoleh berdasarkan perhitungan di atas kemudian ditransformasi menjadi variabel Interval dengan menggunakan rumus seperti yang dilakukan dalam kolom 8.

Kolom 8. Nilai Y (kolom 8) dicari dengan rumus: Y = Nilai Skala + │ Nilai Skalamin │. Cari nilai negatif paling tinggi pada kolom 7 (nilai skala). Kemudian tambahkan bilangan itu dengan bilangan tertentu agar sama dengan 1. Angka negatif paling tinggi adalah – 1,2748.

Agar bilangan itu sama dengan satu berarti harus di tambah dengan bilangan 2,2748 (bilangan konstan). Kemudian untuk nilai Y2, juga harus ditambah dengan angka 2,2748. Begitu seterusnya sampai nilai Y5.

Y1 = – 1,2748 + 2,2748 = 1
Y2 = – 0,4253 + 2,2748 = 1,8495
Y3 = 0,2379 + 2,2748 = 2,5127
Y4 = 1,0847 + 2,2748 = 3,3595
Y5 = 2,0800 + 2,2748 = 4,3548

C. Kesimpulan
Nilai Yi (kolom 8) merupakan nilai hasil transformasi dari variabel ordinal menjadi variabel interval dengan metode MSI. Dengan kata lain, nilai Yi sudah berbentuk data interval. Bila transformasi serupa juga diberlakukan terhadap Nilai Xi, maka kedua variabel ini bisa digunakan sebagai variabel untuk keperluan analisis Parametrik bagi mahasiswa. Misalnya menggunakan Pearson Korelasi Product Moment, Partial Corelation, Multiple Corelation, Partial Regression, dan Multiple Regression.


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Untuk Penjelasannya, baca artikel berikut "Contoh Transformasi Data Ordinal Dengan Excel"
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DAFTAR PUSTAKA
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J.T. Roscoe, Fundamental Research Statistic for the Behavioral Sciences, Hol, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., New York, 1969.
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Moh. Nazir, Ph.D. Metode Penelitian, Penerbit Ghalia Indonesia, Jakarta, 2003.
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Riduan, Dasar-dasar Statistika, Penerbit CV. ALFABETA, Bandung, 2005.
Sugiono, Prof. Dr., Statistik Nonparametrik Untuk Penelitian, Penerbit CV. ALFABETA, Bandung, 2004.
Wijayanto, Structural Equation Modeling dengan LISREL 8.5. Pasca Sarjana FE-UI, Jakarta, 2003.
Zaenal Mustafa El Qodri, Pengantar Statistik Terapan Untuk Ekonomi, Penerbit BPFE, Yogyakarta, 1995.
Babbie, Earl R., The Pravtice of Social Research, 4th Edition, Belmont, CA, Wadsworth, 1986.
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TRANSFORMASI DATA ORDINAL KE INTERVAL dan (PERDEBATANNYA)
Perdebatan tentang Konversi Olah Data Ordinal menjadi Interval agar bisa digunakan dalam analisis statistik parametrik sebenarnya sudah selesai dan berakhir beberapa dasawarsa lalu. Sebagaimana dikatakan oleh Prof. Dr. Imam Ghozali, M.Com., (dalam Muji Gunarto). Akan tetapi belakangan ini relatif sering dipertanyakan berkenaan dengan kelaziman model yang akan digunakan oleh mahasiswa ketika akan membuat tugas akhir. Fenomena seperti itu tentu saja merupakan dinamika pemikiran mahasiswa yang makin kritis mengahadapi tugas-tugas kuliah yang makin komplek. Sebelum mahasiswa melakukan penelitian, variabel dan definisi operasionalnya memang harus dilakukan demi memasuki wilayah penetuan model yang akan digunakan. Karena penggunaan model saja, tanpa melakukan pengkajian akan berakibat pada pelanggaran kelaziman terhadap penggunaan model terhadap data yang diperoleh mahasiswa.

Definisi operasional variabel yang dijabarkan sesuai dengan konsep dan teori yang relatif benar akan membantu mengungkapkan penggunaan data penelitian. Karena berdasarkan definisi ini, kita akan menemukan dan membuat klasifikasi data sesuai dengan keperluan. Beberapa Universitas di Indonesia ada yang memberikan syarat dilakukannya transformasi terlebih dahulu terhadap data ordinal, sebelum dilakukan analisis dengan metode multivariate atau analisis path. Misalkan kita akan menganalisis variabel motivasi dan prestasi kerja karyawan sebuah perusahaan. Variabel motivasi kerja karyawan diberi simbol X dan variabel pretasi kerja karyawan diberi simbol Y. Keduanya diukur dalam satuan skala ordinal.

Setelah dilakukan transformasi, data tersebut kemudian dianalisis dengan metode regresi. Katakan hasilnya adalah Y = 4 + 2X. Artinya bila X (motivasi kerja) meningkat 1 satuan, maka Y (prestasi kerja) akan meningkat sebesar 2 satuan. Kita tahu bahwa X ( motivasi kerja) adalah variabel kualitatif. Angka yang diberikan hanya semata-mata merupakan simbol belaka yang diberikan demi kepentingan analisis data. Karena tanpa memberikan angka (numerik), data kualitatif tidak bisa di analisis dengan statistika.

Bagaimana mungkin X (motivasi) bisa mempengaruhi Y dalam satuan numerik?. Kita hanya bisa mengatakan bahwa variabel Motivasi berpengaruh Signifikan terhadap Prestasi Kerja Karena sejak awal, variabel motivasi dan prestasi kerja adalah data kualitatif, bukan numerik. Simbol numerik yang diberikan kepadanya tidak memberikan arti apa-apa secara kuantitatif, akan tetapi hanya merupakan simbol belaka. Coba saja kita bandingkan dengan kasus lain berikut ini, Pupuk yang digunakan dalam satuan (kwintal) akan digunakan untuk memprediksi hasil Produksi Padi dalam satuan (ton). Katakan hasilnya adalah Y = 4 + 2X. Artinya bila Pupuk naik sebesar 1 satuan (kwintal), diharapkan hasil produksi Padi akan naik sebesar 2 satuan (ton).
Satuan dalam kasus ini, yakni kwintal dan ton, merupakan satuan (numerik) yang bisa diukur, dibandingkan secara kuantitatif dan ditimbang.

Karena sejak awal, data yang di analisis merupakan data interval (ratio) numerik yang bisa diukur secara kuantitatif. Akan tetapi data yang pada awalnya merupakan data kualitatif dan di ukur dengan skala Ordinal, misalnya Motivasi Kerja dan Prestasi kerja, meskipun dilakukan transformasi dengan cara menaikkan skalanya dari ordinal menjadi interval, kemudian dilakukan analisis misalnya dengan metode regresi, atau statistik parametrik, tetap saja kita akan menemui kesulitan dalam melakukan interpretasi terhadap hasil (persamaan regresi) yang kita peroleh. Karena sejak awal, data yang kita analisis adalah merupakan data kualitatif (bukan numerik) seperti halnya data interval/ratio.

Pemberian simbol dalam data kualitatif hanya bertujuan untuk memudahkan perhitungan secara matematis. Satuannya, yakni satuan yang ditunjukkan oleh data kualitatif setelah dilakukan pemberian simbol secara numerik tetap saja tidak akan memberikan informasi secara numerik seperti halnya data interval atau ratio.

> OLAH DATA ORDINAL MENJADI INTERVAL

7 Manusia Terpendek Di Dunia

1. Ajay Kumar (Aktor Terkecil Dunia)

Aktor Komedi India Ajay Kumar telah resmi diakui sebagai aktor terkecil di dunia. Kumar, yang memiliki tinggi 75 cm telah berhasil masuk ke Guinness Book of World Records setelah membintangi lebih dari 50 film dari usia 13 tahun. Lebih dikenal dengan nama panggung Unda Pakru, bintang kecil telah menjadi nama marga di daerah aslinya, Kerala Setelah meraih ketenaran dan keberuntungan lewat aktingnya, Ajay bahkan dianggap sebagai sukses yang memenuhi syarat yang diinginkan sebuah keluarga yang ingin mencarikan seorang suami yang baik untuk anak perempuan mereka. menikah pada tahun 2005 dengan istrinya Gayatri yang mempunyai tinggi 150 cm, pernikahanya disiarkan di televisi lokal di seluruh negara bagian India barat daya. 2. Chen Li Guilan & Tangyong (Pasangan Terpendek di Dunia)

Dua warga Cina pengantin baru berharap untuk masuk ke buku rekor sebagai pasangan terpendek di dunia. Chen Guilan, 70 cm, dari kota Shunde, Cina, menikahi Li Tangyong, 67 cm pada Oktober 2007. 3. Edward Nino Hernandez (Pemegang rekor Manusia Terkecil Dunia September 2010)

Edward Nino Hernandez secara resmi disebut sebagai manusia hidup terpendek di dunia pada tanggal 4 September 2010, oleh Guinness World Records. Pada usia 24 tahun Hernandez mempunyai tinggi 0,7 m, dan berat 10 kg . Hernandez tinggal di Bogota, Kolombia, dan tubuhnya tidak tumbuh lagi sejak ulang tahun ke-2nya.Mengapa pertumbuhan tubuhnya berhenti, bagaimanapun,hal itu tetap misteri. Rekor Hernandez berakhir pada tanggal 14 Oktober 2010 ketika Khagendra Thapa Magar dari Nepal berusia 18 dinyatakan lebih pendek darinya. 4. Khagendra Thapa Magar (Pemegang Rekor Manusia Terkecil Dunia Oktober 2010)

Khagendra Thapa Magar (lahir 14 Oktober 1992), putra Rup Bahadur dan Dhana Maya Thapa Magar, adalah pria terpendek di dunia, dengan tinggi 0,67 m . Dahulu dia memegang rekor remaja terpendek di dunia, Magar memegang rekor pria terpendek menggantikan Edward Nino Hernandez ketika ia berusia 18 pada 14 Oktober 2010. Magar adalah kurcaci primordial. Dia kehilangan Gelar Rekor "Manusia Terpendek Dunia" pada tanggal 12 Juni 2011, digantikan Junrey Balawing dari Filipina 5. Jyoti Amge (Gadis Terkecil di Dunia)

Jyoti Amge remaja India 15 tahun adalah gadis terkecil di dunia dengan berat sekitar 5kg dan tinggi sekitar 58 cm. Dia memiliki bentuk dwarfisme disebut achodroplasia dan tidak akan pernah tumbuh lebih tinggi. Meskipun tidak begitu bahagia dengan keadaan fisiknya, kini Jyoti bangga menjadi yang terkecil di dunia dan dia banyak mendapat perhatian khusus dari orang-orang di sekitarnya. Jyoti mempunyai harapan bahwa dia satu hari masuk ke Bollywood sebagai seorang aktris.

6. Verne Troyer Verne Troyer

verne troyer

This 40-year old actor, famous for playing Mini-Me in Austin Powers, is now just as famous for his private antics as his professional. Ini aktor berusia 40 tahun, terkenal untuk bermain Mini-Me di Austin Powers, sekarang hanya sebagai terkenal karena kejenakaan swasta sebagai profesional. The self-confessed sex addict was the latest celebrity to fall foul of a sex tape scandal, after private moments between him and his former girlfriend, Ranae Shrider, were leaked. Pecandu seks mengaku diri adalah selebriti terbaru untuk jatuh enak skandal sex tape, setelah saat-saat pribadi antara dia dan mantan pacarnya, Ranae Shrider, yang bocor. He is no stranger to reality TV however, and is currently doing a stint on Celebrity Big Brother UK, where he has been seen getting sozzled on Champagne, flirting with the ladies, and causing havoc on his mobility scooter. Dia tidak asing ke TV realitas Namun, dan saat ini sedang melakukan tugas di Celebrity Big Brother UK, di mana dia telah terlihat masuk mabuk pada Champagne, menggoda dengan wanita, dan menyebabkan kerusakan pada skuter mobilitas nya.

7. Danny Devito Danny DeVito

Danny Devito

This huge movie star stands at just 4”11 tall. Bintang film besar berdiri di hanya 4 "11 tinggi. He was born in Neptune, New Jersey, to a middle class family, and decided to go into acting at an early age. Ia dilahirkan di Neptune, New Jersey, untuk sebuah keluarga kelas menengah, dan memutuskan untuk pergi ke dunia akting pada usia dini. After getting his big break in Taxi, Devito went on to star in blockbusters such as Other People's Money, LA Confidential, Batman and Heist. Setelah mendapatkan terobosan besar di Taksi, DeVito pergi ke bintang di film-film seperti Uang Orang Lain, LA Rahasia, Batman dan Heist. He continues to act, but also branched into producing, with films such as Pulp Fiction and Erin Brockovich under his belt. Dia terus bertindak, tapi juga bercabang menjadi memproduksi, dengan film seperti Pulp Fiction dan Erin Brockovich di bawah ikat pinggang.

 

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> 7 Manusia Terpendek Di Dunia

Baltimore Residents Away From Turmoil Consider Their Role

BALTIMORE — In the afternoons, the streets of Locust Point are clean and nearly silent. In front of the rowhouses, potted plants rest next to steps of brick or concrete. There is a shopping center nearby with restaurants, and a grocery store filled with fresh foods.

And the National Guard and the police are largely absent. So, too, residents say, are worries about what happened a few miles away on April 27 when, in a space of hours, parts of this city became riot zones.

“They’re not our reality,” Ashley Fowler, 30, said on Monday at the restaurant where she works. “They’re not what we’re living right now. We live in, not to be racist, white America.”

As Baltimore considers its way forward after the violent unrest brought by the death of Freddie Gray, a 25-year-old black man who died of injuries he suffered while in police custody, residents in its predominantly white neighborhoods acknowledge that they are sometimes struggling to understand what beyond Mr. Gray’s death spurred the turmoil here. For many, the poverty and troubled schools of gritty West Baltimore are distant troubles, glimpsed only when they pass through the area on their way somewhere else.

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Officers blocked traffic at Pennsylvania and West North Avenues after reports that a gun was discharged in the area. Credit Drew Angerer for The New York Times

And so neighborhoods of Baltimore are facing altogether different reckonings after Mr. Gray’s death. In mostly black communities like Sandtown-Winchester, where some of the most destructive rioting played out last week, residents are hoping businesses will reopen and that the police will change their strategies. But in mostly white areas like Canton and Locust Point, some residents wonder what role, if any, they should play in reimagining stretches of Baltimore where they do not live.

“Most of the people are kind of at a loss as to what they’re supposed to do,” said Dr. Richard Lamb, a dentist who has practiced in the same Locust Point office for nearly 39 years. “I listen to the news reports. I listen to the clergymen. I listen to the facts of the rampant unemployment and the lack of opportunities in the area. Listen, I pay my taxes. Exactly what can I do?”

And in Canton, where the restaurants have clever names like Nacho Mama’s and Holy Crepe Bakery and Café, Sara Bahr said solutions seemed out of reach for a proudly liberal city.

“I can only imagine how frustrated they must be,” said Ms. Bahr, 36, a nurse who was out with her 3-year-old daughter, Sally. “I just wish I knew how to solve poverty. I don’t know what to do to make it better.”

The day of unrest and the overwhelmingly peaceful demonstrations that followed led to hundreds of arrests, often for violations of the curfew imposed on the city for five consecutive nights while National Guard soldiers patrolled the streets. Although there were isolated instances of trouble in Canton, the neighborhood association said on its website, many parts of southeast Baltimore were physically untouched by the tumult.

Tensions in the city bubbled anew on Monday after reports that the police had wounded a black man in Northwest Baltimore. The authorities denied those reports and sent officers to talk with the crowds that gathered while other officers clutching shields blocked traffic at Pennsylvania and West North Avenues.

Lt. Col. Melvin Russell, a community police officer, said officers had stopped a man suspected of carrying a handgun and that “one of those rounds was spent.”

Colonel Russell said officers had not opened fire, “so we couldn’t have shot him.”

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Lambi Vasilakopoulos, right, who runs a casual restaurant in Canton, said he was incensed by last week's looting and predicted tensions would worsen. Credit Drew Angerer for The New York Times

The colonel said the man had not been injured but was taken to a hospital as a precaution. Nearby, many people stood in disbelief, despite the efforts by the authorities to quash reports they described as “unfounded.”

Monday’s episode was a brief moment in a larger drama that has yielded anger and confusion. Although many people said they were familiar with accounts of the police harassing or intimidating residents, many in Canton and Locust Point said they had never experienced it themselves. When they watched the unrest, which many protesters said was fueled by feelings that they lived only on Baltimore’s margins, even those like Ms. Bahr who were pained by what they saw said they could scarcely comprehend the emotions associated with it.

But others, like Lambi Vasilakopoulos, who runs a casual restaurant in Canton, said they were incensed by what unfolded last week.

“What happened wasn’t called for. Protests are one thing; looting is another thing,” he said, adding, “We’re very frustrated because we’re the ones who are going to pay for this.”

There were pockets of optimism, though, that Baltimore would enter a period of reconciliation.

“I’m just hoping for peace,” Natalie Boies, 53, said in front of the Locust Point home where she has lived for 50 years. “Learn to love each other; be patient with each other; find justice; and care.”

A skeptical Mr. Vasilakopoulos predicted tensions would worsen.

“It cannot be fixed,” he said. “It’s going to get worse. Why? Because people don’t obey the laws. They don’t want to obey them.”

But there were few fears that the violence that plagued West Baltimore last week would play out on these relaxed streets. The authorities, Ms. Fowler said, would make sure of that.

“They kept us safe here,” she said. “I didn’t feel uncomfortable when I was in my house three blocks away from here. I knew I was going to be O.K. because I knew they weren’t going to let anyone come and loot our properties or our businesses or burn our cars.”

Baltimore Residents Away From Turmoil Consider Their Role | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Ben Carson Says He’ll Seek 2016 G.O.P. Nomination

ate in February, Dr. Ben Carson, the celebrated pediatric neurosurgeon turned political insurrectionist, was trying to check off another box on his presidential-campaign to-do list: hiring a press secretary. The lead prospect, a public-relations specialist named Deana Bass, had come to meet him at the dimly lit Capitol Hill office of Carson’s confidant and business manager, Armstrong Williams. Carson sat back and scrutinized her from behind a small granite table, as life-size cardboard cutouts of more conventional politicians — President Obama, with a tight smile, and Senator John McCain, glowering — loomed behind each of his shoulders. (The mock $3 bill someone had left on a table in Williams’s waiting room undercut any notion that this was a bipartisan zone; it featured Obama wearing a turban.)

Bass seemed momentarily speechless, and not just because no one had warned her that a New York Times reporter would be sitting in on her job interview. Though she knew Williams — a jack-of-all-trades entrepreneur who owns several television stations and a public-affairs business and who hosts a daily talk-radio show — through Washington’s small circle of black conservatives, the two hadn’t spoken in years until he called her two days earlier. He had been struggling to come up with the perfect national spokesperson, he told her. Then, at the gym, her name popped into his head; Williams was fairly certain she was the one. Sitting across from a likely candidate for president, Bass was adjusting to the idea that her life might be about to take a sudden chaotic turn.

“It’s like getting the most random call on a Monday that you simply do not see coming,” she said. “Oftentimes, that is how the Lord works.”

Continue reading the main story

His life in brain surgery
has prepared him for the
presidency, he maintains,
better than lives in
politics have for his rivals.

Carson concurred: “It’s always how he works in my life.” Carson is soft-spoken and often talks with his eyes half closed, frequently punctuating his sentences with a small laugh, even if the humor of his statement is not readily apparent. Bass told Carson that she had been a Republican staff member on Capitol Hill then worked for the Republican National Committee. In 2007 she started a Christian public-relations firm with her sister. She enjoyed working on the Hill, she said, but the pay wasn’t as high as the hours were long. “We figured that we worked like slaves for other people, and we wanted to work for ourselves.”

Carson stopped her. “You know you can’t mention that word, right?” Carson waited a beat, then laughed, and Williams and Bass joined in. He was getting to the point; he needed a professional who could help him check his penchant for creating uncontrolled controversy just by talking.

The Ben Carson movement began in 2013, when Carson, a neurosurgeon, whose operating-room prowess and up-from-poverty back story had made him the subject of a television movie and a regular on the inspirational-speaking circuit, was invited to address the annual National Prayer Breakfast in Washington. With Barack Obama sitting just two seats away, Carson warned that “moral decay” and “fiscal irresponsibility” could destroy America just as it did ancient Rome. He proposed a substitute for Obamacare — Health Savings Accounts, which, he said, would end any talk of “death panels” — and a flat-tax based on the concept of tithing. His address, combined with the president’s stony reaction, was a smash with Republican activists. Speaking and interview requests flooded in. Carson, then 61, announced his planned retirement a few weeks later, freeing his calendar to accept just about all of them. In the months that followed, his rhetoric became increasingly strident. The claim that drew the most attention, perhaps, was that Obamacare was “the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery.”

Bass’s own use of the word prompted Carson to ask her what she thought about that incident. She considered for a moment.

“If you want to reach people and have them even understand what you’re saying, there is a way to do it, without that hyperbole, that might be. . . . ” She paused. “I just think it’s important not to shut people off before they —”

Carson jumped in. “That doesn’t allow them to hear what you’re saying?”

Bass nodded.

Likening Obamacare to slavery — and slavery was incomparably worse, Carson said — had its political advantages for a candidacy like his. It was the kind of statement that stoked the angriest of the Republican voters: conservative stalwarts who can’t hear enough bad things about Obama. This, in turn, led to more talk-radio and Fox News appearances, more book sales, more donations to the super PAC started in his name, more support in the polls. (The day before the meeting, one poll of Republican voters showed Carson statistically tied for first place with Jeb Bush and Scott Walker.)

Rhetorical excess was good for business, but Carson now wants to be seen as more than a novelty candidate. He has come to learn that such extreme analogies, while true to his views, aren’t especially presidential. They alienate more moderate voters and, perhaps even more damaging, reinforce the impression that he is not “serious” — that he is another Herman Cain, the black former Godfather’s Pizza chief executive who rose to the top of the early presidential polls in 2011 but then bowed out before the Iowa caucuses, largely because of leaked allegations of sexual misconduct, which he denied but from which he never recovered. Cain lingers as a cautionary tale for the party as much as for a right-leaning candidate like Carson. The fact that Cain, with his folksy sayings (“shucky ducky”) and misnomers (“Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan”), reached the top of the national polls — much less that he was eventually followed there by the likes of Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, who all topped one or another poll in the 2012 primary season — wound up being a considerable embarrassment for the eventual nominee, Mitt Romney, and for the longtime party regulars who were trying to fast-track his way to the nomination.

Carson liked Bass and, without directly saying so, made it clear the job was hers for the taking. Carson’s campaign chairman, Terry Giles — a white lawyer whose clients have included the comedian Richard Pryor and the stepson of the model Anna Nicole Smith and who helped reconcile the business interests of the descendants of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. — had assembled a mostly white campaign team, including many from the 2012 Gingrich effort, and Carson wanted a person of color to speak for him. Bass said she would have to mull it over, pray about it. Carson nodded approvingly. “Pray about it,” he said. “See what you think.”

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Williams knew the party was intent on protecting the eventual 2016 nominee from the same embarrassment Romney suffered. Already, suspiciously tough articles about Carson were showing up in conservative magazines and on right-wing websites. “They’re protecting these establishment candidates,” Williams said. “This is coming from within the house. This is family.” At the very least, he wanted to make sure that Carson didn’t do their work for them. (Carson would commit another unforced error a week later, when he told CNN that homosexuality was clearly a choice, because a lot of people go in prison straight and “when they come out, they’re gay”; he later apologized.)

“We need somebody to protect him, sometimes, from himself,” he told Bass — laughing, but only half kidding.

A candidacy like Carson’s presents a new kind of problem to the establishment wing of the G.O.P., which, at least since 1980, has selected its presidential nominees with a routine efficiency that Democrats could only envy. The establishment candidate has usually been a current or former governor or senator, blandly Protestant, hailing from the moderate, big-business wing of the party (or at least friendly with it) and almost always a second-, third- or fourth-time national contender — someone who had waited “his turn.” These candidates would tack predictably to the right during the primaries to satisfy the evangelicals, deficit hawks, libertarian leaners and other inconvenient but vital constituents who made up the “base” of the party. In return, the base would, after a brief flirtation with some fantasy candidate like Steve Forbes or Pat Buchanan, “hold their noses” and deliver their votes come November. This bargain was always tenuous, of course, and when some of the furthest-right activists turned against George W. Bush, citing (among other apostasies) his expansion of Medicare’s prescription drug benefit, it began to fall apart. After Barack Obama defeated McCain in 2008, the party’s once dependable base started to reconsider the wisdom of holding their noses at all.

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Republican candidates at a pre-straw-poll debate, held at Iowa State University in 2011. Credit Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

This insurgent attitude was helped along by changes in the nomination rules. In 2010, the Republican National Committee, hoping to capture the excitement of the coast-to-coast Democratic primary competition between Obama and Hillary Clinton, introduced new voting rules that required many of the early voting states to award some delegates to losing candidates, based on their shares of the vote. The proportional voting rules would encourage struggling candidates to stay in the primaries even after successive losses, as Clinton did, because they might be able to pull together enough delegates to take the nomination in a convention-floor fight or at least use them to bargain for a prime speaking slot or cabinet post.

This shift in incentives did not go unnoticed by potential 2012 candidates, nor did changes in election law that allowed billionaire donors to form super PACs in support of pet candidacies. At the same time, increasingly widespread broadband Internet access allowed candidates to reach supporters directly with video and email appeals and supporters to send money with the tap of a smartphone, making it easier than ever for individual candidates to ignore the wishes of the party.

Into this newly chaotic Republican landscape strode Mitt Romney. There could be no doubt that it was his turn, and yet his journey to the nomination was interrupted by one against-the-odds challenger after another — Cain, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul; always Ron Paul. It was easy to dismiss the 2012 primaries as a meaningless circus, but the onslaught did much more than tarnish the overall Republican brand. It also forced Romney to spend money he could have used against Obama and defend his right flank with embarrassing pandering that shadowed him through the general election. It was while trying to block a surge from Gingrich, for instance, that Romney told a debate audience that he was for the “self-deportation” of undocumented immigrants.

At the 2012 convention in Tampa, a group of longtime party hands, including Romney’s lawyer, Ben Ginsberg, gathered to discuss how to prevent a repeat of what had become known inside and outside the party as the “clown show.” Their aim was not just to protect the party but also to protect a potential President Romney from a primary challenge in 2016. They forced through new rules that would give future presumptive nominees more control over delegates in the event of a convention fight. They did away with the mandatory proportional delegate awards that encouraged long-shot candidacies. And, in a noticeably targeted effort, they raised the threshold that candidates needed to meet to enter their names into nomination, just as Ron Paul’s supporters were working to reach it. When John A. Boehner gaveled the rules in on a voice vote — a vote that many listeners heard as a tie, if not an outright loss — the hall erupted and a line of Ron Paul supporters walked off the floor in protest, along with many Tea Party members.

At a party meeting last winter, Reince Priebus, who as party chairman is charged with maintaining the support of all his constituencies, did restore some proportional primary and caucus voting, but only in states that held voting within a shortened two-week window. And he also condensed the nominating schedule to four and a half months from six months, and, for the first time required candidates to participate in a shortened debate schedule, determined by the party, not by the whims of the networks. (The panel that recommended those changes included names closely identified with the establishment — the former Bush White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, the Mississippi committeeman Haley Barbour and, notably, Jeb Bush’s closest adviser, Sally Bradshaw.)

Grass-roots activists have complained that the condensed schedule robs nonestablishment candidates — “movement candidates” like Carson — of the extra time they need to build momentum, money and organizations. But Priebus, who says the nomination could be close to settled by April, said it helped all the party’s constituencies when the nominee was decided quickly. “We don’t need a six-month slice-and-dice festival,” Priebus said when we spoke in mid-March. “While I can’t always control everyone’s mouth, I can control how long we can kill each other.”

All the rules changes were built to sidestep the problems of 2012. But the 2016 field is shaping up to be vastly different and far larger. A new Republican hints that he or she is considering a run seemingly every week. There are moderates like Gov. John Kasich of Ohio and former Gov. George Pataki of New York; no-compromise conservatives like Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania; business-wingers like the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina; one-of-a-kinds like Donald Trump — some 20 in all, a dozen or so who seem fairly serious about it. That opens the possibility of multiple candidates vying for all the major Republican constituencies, some of them possibly goaded along by super-PAC-funding billionaires, all of them trading wins and collecting delegates well into spring.

Giles says his candidate can capitalize on all that chaos. Rivals may laugh, but Giles argues that if Carson can make a respectable showing in Iowa, then win in South Carolina — or at least come in second should a home-state senator, Lindsey Graham, run — and come in second behind Bush or Senator Marco Rubio in their home state of Florida, he could be positioned to make a real run. But that would depend on avoiding pitfalls like Carson’s ill-considered comments on homosexuality. Rather than capitalizing on the chaos, Carson may only contribute to it.

Ben Carson is, in many ways, the ideal Republican presidential candidate. With a not-too-selective reading of his life story, conservative voters can — and do — see in him an inspiring, up-from-nowhere African-American who shares their beliefs, a right-wing answer to Barack Obama. Before he was born, his parents moved to Detroit from rural Tennessee as part of the second great migration. His father, Robert Solomon Carson, worked at a Cadillac factory. His mother, Sonya — who herself had grown up as one of 24 children and left school at third grade — cleaned houses. When Carson was 8, Sonya discovered that Robert was keeping a second family. She moved, with her two sons, into a rundown group house. It was in a part of town that Carson described to me as crawling with “big rats and roaches and all kinds of horrible things.” Sonya worked several jobs at a time and made up the shortfall with food stamps. (Carson has called for paring back the social safety net but not doing away with it.)

Carson recounts this story in his best-selling 1990 memoir, “Gifted Hands,” which also became the basis for a 2009 movie on TNT, starring Cuba Gooding Jr. as Carson. Raised as a Seventh Day Adventist, Carson realized that he wanted to become a physician during a church sermon about a missionary doctor who, while serving overseas, was almost attacked by thieves but found safety by putting his faith in God. When Carson, then 8, told his mother his new dream, “She said, ‘Absolutely, you could do it, you could do anything,’ ” he told me. Forced by his mother to read two extra books a week, he made it to Yale, then to medical school at the University of Michigan, where he decided to specialize in neurosurgery. He was selected for residency at Johns Hopkins Children’s Center, where he was named director of pediatric neurosurgery at 33, becoming the youngest person, and the first black person, to hold the title. He drew national attention by conducting a succession of operations that had never been performed successfully, most famously planning and managing the first separation of conjoined twins connected through major blood vessels in the brain.

Carson, a two-time Jimmy Carter voter, traces his conservative political awakening to a patient he met during the Reagan years. During a routine obstetrics rotation, he found himself treating an unwed pregnant teenager who had run away from her well-to-do parents. When Carson asked her how she was getting by, she informed him she was on public assistance; this led him to ponder the fact that the government was paying for the result of what he did not view as a “wise decision.” The incident, he says, fed his growing sense that the welfare system too often saps motivation and rewards irresponsible behavior. (When we spoke, he suggested that the government should cut off assistance to would-be unwed mothers, but only after warning them that it would do so within a certain amount of time, say five years. “I bet you’d see a dramatic decrease in unwed motherhood.”)

Carson’s friends at Hopkins say they do not remember him being particularly outspoken about his conservatism. He devoted most of his public engagement to urging poor kids in bad neighborhoods to use “these fancy brains God gave us,” through weekly school visits, student hospital tours and, ultimately, a multimillion-dollar scholarship program. “His issues were always medical care for the poor, education for the poor, equal opportunity — helping the less fortunate and really inspiring them as an example,” a mentor who named him to the chief pediatrics-neurosurgery post at Hopkins, Dr. Donlin Long, told me.

Even when Carson got the chance, in 1997, to speak in front of President Bill Clinton, at the national prayer breakfast, he mostly discussed the lack of role models for black children who were not sports stars or rappers. (There was possibly an oblique reference to Clinton’s sex scandals, when he told the audience that, if they are always honest, they won’t have to worry later about “skeletons in the closet.”)

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Ben Carson at CPAC on Feb. 26 in Oxon Hill, Md. Credit Dolly Faibyshev for The New York Times

In 2011, Carson’s politics took a strident turn, mirroring that of many in his party during the Obama years. “America the Beautiful,” his sixth book, which he wrote with Candy Carson, his wife of 39 years, included a get-tough-on-illegal-immigration message and offered anti-establishment praise for the Tea Party. It suggested that blacks who voted for Obama only because he was black were themselves practicing a form of racism. (Earlier this year he admitted to Buzzfeed that portions of the book were lifted directly from several sources without proper attribution.) His prayer-breakfast performance in 2013, and the extremity of his remarks in the months afterward (Obamacare is the worst thing since slavery; the United States is “very much like Nazi Germany”; allowing same-sex marriage could lead to allowing bestiality), left some of his old friends bewildered. Students at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine protested his planned convocation address there in 2013, and he eventually backed out. When I asked Carson about the view at Hopkins that he had changed, he said his themes are still the same: “hard work, self-reliance, helping other people.” If he had become more overtly political, he said, it was only because the Obama years had led him to believe that “we’re really moving in a direction that is very, very destructive.”

None of this went unnoticed by campaign professionals. In August 2013, John Philip Sousa IV and Vernon Robinson, each of whom professes to be a virtual stranger to Carson, and who had previously been active in the anti-illegal-immigration movement, started the National Draft Ben Carson for President Committee. Sousa was just coming off a campaign to defend the sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona, Joe Arpaio, from a recall effort, and he told me that he found Carson’s lack of political experience refreshing. “We have 500 guys and gals with probably a collective 5,000 years experience, and look at the mess we’re in,” he said.

Many others in the party feel the same way. Carson’s PAC finished 2014 with more than $13 million in donations, more than Ready for Hillary. Much of its money has gone toward further fund-raising, but Sousa — the great-grandson of the famous composer — points out that their effort has already built far more than just a war chest, organizing leaders in all 99 of Iowa’s counties. Regardless, Carson credits the fund-raising success of Sousa and Robinson with persuading him to enter the race.

Very early the morning after the job interview, Carson was in a black S.U.V., heading from Washington to the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in Oxon Hill, Md., where he was to give the opening candidate speech of the Conservative Political Action Conference. The event, which functions as an early tryout for Republican presidential contenders, tends to skew rightward in its audience, drawing many of the same sorts of people who shouted at Boehner in Tampa. As such, it tends to favor anti-establishment candidates, but the news leading up to this year’s event was that Jeb Bush hoped to make inroads there.

It was still dark when we set out, and I joked with Carson about the hour, telling him he’d better get used to it. He retorted that his career in pediatric brain surgery made him no stranger to early mornings. This is a big theme of Carson’s presidential pitch: that neither the rigors of the campaign nor those of the White House can faze a man who held children’s lives in his hands. His life in brain surgery has prepared him for the presidency, he maintains, better than lives in politics have for his rivals. At the very least, he says, it conditioned him against getting too worked up about any problem that isn’t life threatening. “I mean, it’s grueling, but interestingly enough, I don’t feel the pressure,” he said.

At the convention hall, we were quickly surrounded by admirers. Two women were already waiting to meet him — white, middle-aged volunteers for Carson’s super PAC, who had traveled from South Carolina. One of them, Chris Horne, was holding a dog-eared and taped Bible. A founding member of the Charleston Tea Party who went on to work for Gingrich’s successful South Carolina primary campaign in 2012, Horne lamented over the attacks that Carson was sure to face. “You served us, you served the Lord, just don’t let them steal that from you,” she said. Her friend told him, “You’ve got God behind you!” Such religious evocations trailed Carson constantly while I walked the CPAC floor with him. Evangelicals are impressed not only with his devotion to their politics but also with his career path; as one of them told me, what’s more pro-life than saving babies?

During our ride to the conference, Carson told me his speech was not looking to “feed the beast.” When his appointed time came, he kept his remarks as tame as promised. “Real compassion” meant “using our intellect” to help people “climb out of dependency and realize the American dream,” he said. The national debt is going to “destroy us,” Obamacare was about “redistribution and control,” but Republicans better come forward with their own alternative before they repeal it, he said.

Because his speech was first, and it started several minutes early, the auditorium was slow to fill. Still, the first day saw a crush of people seeking autographs and pictures as he roamed the hall. The Draft Carson committee’s 150 volunteers swarmed the auditorium, collecting emails and handing out “Run Ben Run” stickers. After a quick interview with Sean Hannity, the conservative-radio and Fox News host — his second in two days — Carson was off to Tampa.

In the hours that followed his talk, the hall offered a view in miniature of what the next 12 to 14 months might hold for the party. Chris Christie, sitting across from the tough-minded talk-radio host Laura Ingraham, boasted about his multiple vetoes of Planned Parenthood funding, his refusal to raise income taxes and his belief that “sometimes people need to be told to sit down and shut up.” Cruz, an audience favorite, warning his fellow Republicans against falling for a “squishy moderate,” declared, “Take all 125,000 I.R.S. agents and put ’em on our Southern border!” Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, surging in polls, boasted that if he could face down the 100,000 union supporters who protested his legislation limiting collective bargaining for public employees, he could certainly handle ISIS. The next day, the traditional CPAC favorite Rand Paul spoke, packing the hall with his supporters who chanted “President Paul.” He warned, counter to the overall hawkish tenor of the event, that “we should not succumb to the notion that a government inept at home will somehow become successful abroad.” But he also vowed to end foreign aid to countries whose citizens are seen burning American flags. “Not one penny more to these haters of America.”

Perhaps the defining moment came near the end of the conference, when Jeb Bush spoke. In a neat trick of political gamesmanship — and a show of establishment muscle — his team had bused in an ample cheering section for the dozens of cameras on hand for his appearance. But a small contingent of Tea Party activists and Rand Paul supporters staged a walk out. When Bush began a question-and-answer session, they turned and left the auditorium to chant “U.S.A., U.S.A.” in the hallway, led by a man in colonial garb waving a huge “Don’t Tread on Me” banner. Plenty of other detractors stayed in the hall and peppered Bush’s remarks with booing as he stood by positions unpopular with the conservative grass roots: support for the Common Core standards and an immigration overhaul that provides a “path to legal status” for undocumented immigrants. Bush took it all in good humor, but finally seemed to give up.

“For those who made an ‘oo’ sound — is that what it was? — I’m marking you down as neutral,” he said. “And I want to be your second choice.”

Bush strategists told me they would not repeat Romney’s mistakes. Of course they would love to glide to an early nomination, they said, but they are prepared for a long contest and won’t be wasting any energy bending under pressure from a Paul or a Cruz or a Carson.

No one doubts that the pressure will increase, though. Despite the best wishes of the party’s leaders, GOP primary voters have given little indication that they will narrow the field quickly.

Before I left, I spotted Newt Gingrich, himself a fleeting presidential front-runner during those strange primary days of 2012. I asked him whether he thought all the party maneuvering — all the attempts to change the rules and fast-track the process — would preclude someone from presenting the sort of outside primary challenge he had carried out in the last election.

“No,” he told me, as if it was the most obvious thing in the world. “Look at where Ben Carson is right now.”

Jim Rutenberg is the chief political correspondent for the magazine. His most recent feature was about Megyn Kelly.

Ben Carson Says He’ll Seek 2016 G.O.P. Nomination | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Sid Tepper Dies at 96; Delivered ‘Red Roses for a Blue Lady’ and Other Songs

Mr. Tepper was not a musical child and had no formal training, but he grew up to write both lyrics and tunes, trading off duties with the other member of the team, Roy C. Bennett.

Sid Tepper Dies at 96; Delivered ‘Red Roses for a Blue Lady’ and Other Songs | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Jayne Meadows, Actress and Steve Allen’s Wife and Co-Star, Dies at 95

Ms. Meadows was the older sister of Audrey Meadows, who played Alice Kramden on “The Honeymooners.”

Jayne Meadows, Actress and Steve Allen’s Wife and Co-Star, Dies at 95 | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Ellen Turner Dies at 87; Opened Kitchen to Feed the Needy of Knoxville

Ms. Turner and her twin sister founded the Love Kitchen in 1986 in a church basement in Knoxville, Tenn., and it continues to provide clothing and meals.

Ellen Turner Dies at 87; Opened Kitchen to Feed the Needy of Knoxville | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Rhapsody, a Lofty Literary Journal, Perused at 39,000 Feet

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United’s first-class and business fliers get Rhapsody, its high-minded in-flight magazine, seen here at its office in Brooklyn. Credit Sam Hodgson for The New York Times

Last summer at a writers’ workshop in Oregon, the novelists Anthony Doerr, Karen Russell and Elissa Schappell were chatting over cocktails when they realized they had all published work in the same magazine. It wasn’t one of the usual literary outlets, like Tin House, The Paris Review or The New Yorker. It was Rhapsody, an in-flight magazine for United Airlines.

It seemed like a weird coincidence. Then again, considering Rhapsody’s growing roster of A-list fiction writers, maybe not. Since its first issue hit plane cabins a year and a half ago, Rhapsody has published original works by literary stars like Joyce Carol Oates, Rick Moody, Amy Bloom, Emma Straub and Mr. Doerr, who won the Pulitzer Prize for fiction two weeks ago.

As airlines try to distinguish their high-end service with luxuries like private sleeping chambers, showers, butler service and meals from five-star chefs, United Airlines is offering a loftier, more cerebral amenity to its first-class and business-class passengers: elegant prose by prominent novelists. There are no airport maps or disheartening lists of in-flight meal and entertainment options in Rhapsody. Instead, the magazine has published ruminative first-person travel accounts, cultural dispatches and probing essays about flight by more than 30 literary fiction writers.

 

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Sean Manning, executive editor of Rhapsody, which publishes works by the likes of Joyce Carol Oates, Amy Bloom and Anthony Doerr, who won a Pulitzer Prize. Credit Sam Hodgson for The New York Times

 

An airline might seem like an odd literary patron. But as publishers and writers look for new ways to reach readers in a shaky retail climate, many have formed corporate alliances with transit companies, including American Airlines, JetBlue and Amtrak, that provide a captive audience.

Mark Krolick, United Airlines’ managing director of marketing and product development, said the quality of the writing in Rhapsody brings a patina of sophistication to its first-class service, along with other opulent touches like mood lighting, soft music and a branded scent.

“The high-end leisure or business-class traveler has higher expectations, even in the entertainment we provide,” he said.

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Some of Rhapsody’s contributing writers say they were lured by the promise of free airfare and luxury accommodations provided by United, as well as exposure to an elite audience of some two million first-class and business-class travelers.

“It’s not your normal Park Slope Community Bookstore types who read Rhapsody,” Mr. Moody, author of the 1994 novel “The Ice Storm,” who wrote an introspective, philosophical piece about traveling to the Aran Islands of Ireland for Rhapsody, said in an email. “I’m not sure I myself am in that Rhapsody demographic, but I would like them to buy my books one day.”

In addition to offering travel perks, the magazine pays well and gives writers freedom, within reason, to choose their subject matter and write with style. Certain genres of flight stories are off limits, naturally: no plane crashes or woeful tales of lost luggage or rude flight attendants, and nothing too risqué.

“We’re not going to have someone write about joining the mile-high club,” said Jordan Heller, the editor in chief of Rhapsody. “Despite those restrictions, we’ve managed to come up with a lot of high-minded literary content.”

Guiding writers toward the right idea occasionally requires some gentle prodding. When Rhapsody’s executive editor asked Ms. Russell to contribute an essay about a memorable flight experience, she first pitched a story about the time she was chaperoning a group of teenagers on a trip to Europe, and their delayed plane sat at the airport in New York for several hours while other passengers got progressively drunker.

“He pointed out that disaster flights are not what people want to read about when they’re in transit, and very diplomatically suggested that maybe people want to read something that casts air travel in a more positive light,” said Ms. Russell, whose novel “Swamplandia!” was a finalist for the 2012 Pulitzer Prize.

She turned in a nostalgia-tinged essay about her first flight on a trip to Disney World when she was 6. “The Magic Kingdom was an anticlimax,” she wrote. “What ride could compare to that first flight?”

Ms. Oates also wrote about her first flight, in a tiny yellow propeller plane piloted by her father. The novelist Joyce Maynard told of the constant disappointment of never seeing her books in airport bookstores and the thrill of finally spotting a fellow plane passenger reading her novel “Labor Day.” Emily St. John Mandel, who was a finalist for the National Book Award in fiction last year, wrote about agonizing over which books to bring on a long flight.

“There’s nobody that’s looked down their noses at us as an in-flight magazine,” said Sean Manning, the magazine’s executive editor. “As big as these people are in the literary world, there’s still this untapped audience for them of luxury travelers.”

United is one of a handful of companies showcasing work by literary writers as a way to elevate their brands and engage customers. Chipotle has printed original work from writers like Toni Morrison, Jeffrey Eugenides and Barbara Kingsolver on its disposable cups and paper bags. The eyeglass company Warby Parker hosts parties for authors and sells books from 14 independent publishers in its stores.

JetBlue offers around 40 e-books from HarperCollins and Penguin Random House on its free wireless network, allowing passengers to read free samples and buy and download books. JetBlue will start offering 11 digital titles from Simon & Schuster soon. Amtrak recently forged an alliance with Penguin Random House to provide free digital samples from 28 popular titles, which passengers can buy and download over Amtrak’s admittedly spotty wireless service.

Amtrak is becoming an incubator for literary talent in its own right. Last year, it started a residency program, offering writers a free long-distance train trip and complimentary food. More than 16,000 writers applied and 24 made the cut.

Like Amtrak, Rhapsody has found that writers are eager to get onboard. On a rainy spring afternoon, Rhapsody’s editorial staff sat around a conference table discussing the June issue, which will feature an essay by the novelist Hannah Pittard and an unpublished short story by the late Elmore Leonard.

“Do you have that photo of Elmore Leonard? Can I see it?” Mr. Heller, the editor in chief, asked Rhapsody’s design director, Christos Hannides. Mr. Hannides slid it across the table and noted that they also had a photograph of cowboy spurs. “It’s very simple; it won’t take away from the literature,” he said.

Rhapsody’s office, an open space with exposed pipes and a vaulted brick ceiling, sits in Dumbo at the epicenter of literary Brooklyn, in the same converted tea warehouse as the literary journal N+1 and the digital publisher Atavist. Two of the magazine’s seven staff members hold graduate degrees in creative writing. Mr. Manning, the executive editor, has published a memoir and edited five literary anthologies.

Mr. Manning said Rhapsody was conceived from the start as a place for literary novelists to write with voice and style, and nobody had been put off that their work would live in plane cabins and airport lounges.

Still, some contributors say they wish the magazine were more widely circulated.

“I would love it if I could read it,” said Ms. Schappell, a Brooklyn-based novelist who wrote a feature story for Rhapsody’s inaugural issue. “But I never fly first class.”

Rhapsody, a Lofty Literary Journal, Perused at 39,000 Feet | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Verne Gagne, Wrestler Who Grappled Through Two Eras, Dies at 89

Gagne wrestled professionally from the late 1940s until the 1980s and was a transitional figure between the early 20th century barnstormers and the steroidal sideshows of today

Verne Gagne, Wrestler Who Grappled Through Two Eras, Dies at 89 | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Taiwan party leader affirms eventual reunion with China

BEIJING (AP) — The head of Taiwan's Nationalists reaffirmed the party's support for eventual unification with the mainland when he met Monday with Chinese President Xi Jinping as part of continuing rapprochement between the former bitter enemies.

Nationalist Party Chairman Eric Chu, a likely presidential candidate next year, also affirmed Taiwan's desire to join the proposed Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank during the meeting in Beijing. China claims Taiwan as its own territory and doesn't want the island to join using a name that might imply it is an independent country.

Chu's comments during his meeting with Xi were carried live on Hong Kong-based broadcaster Phoenix Television.

The Nationalists were driven to Taiwan by Mao Zedong's Communists during the Chinese civil war in 1949, leading to decades of hostility between the sides. Chu, who took over as party leader in January, is the third Nationalist chairman to visit the mainland and the first since 2009.

Relations between the communist-ruled mainland and the self-governing democratic island of Taiwan began to warm in the 1990s, partly out of their common opposition to Taiwan's formal independence from China, a position advocated by the island's Democratic Progressive Party.

Despite increasingly close economic ties, the prospect of political unification has grown increasingly unpopular on Taiwan, especially with younger voters. Opposition to the Nationalists' pro-China policies was seen as a driver behind heavy local electoral defeats for the party last year that led to Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou resigning as party chairman.

Taiwan party leader affirms eventual reunion with China | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Obama Finds a Bolder Voice on Race Issues

As he reflected on the festering wounds deepened by race and grievance that have been on painful display in America’s cities lately, President Obama on Monday found himself thinking about a young man he had just met named Malachi.

A few minutes before, in a closed-door round-table discussion at Lehman College in the Bronx, Mr. Obama had asked a group of black and Hispanic students from disadvantaged backgrounds what could be done to help them reach their goals. Several talked about counseling and guidance programs.

“Malachi, he just talked about — we should talk about love,” Mr. Obama told a crowd afterward, drifting away from his prepared remarks. “Because Malachi and I shared the fact that our dad wasn’t around and that sometimes we wondered why he wasn’t around and what had happened. But really, that’s what this comes down to is: Do we love these kids?”

Many presidents have governed during times of racial tension, but Mr. Obama is the first to see in the mirror a face that looks like those on the other side of history’s ledger. While his first term was consumed with the economy, war and health care, his second keeps coming back to the societal divide that was not bridged by his election. A president who eschewed focusing on race now seems to have found his voice again as he thinks about how to use his remaining time in office and beyond.

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Obama Speaks of a ‘Sense of Unfairness’

Obama Speaks of a ‘Sense of Unfairness’

At an event announcing the creation of a nonprofit focusing on young minority men, President Obama talked about the underlying reasons for recent protests in Baltimore and other cities.

By Associated Press on Publish Date May 4, 2015. Photo by Stephen Crowley/The New York Times.

In the aftermath of racially charged unrest in places like Baltimore, Ferguson, Mo., and New York, Mr. Obama came to the Bronx on Monday for the announcement of a new nonprofit organization that is being spun off from his White House initiative called My Brother’s Keeper. Staked by more than $80 million in commitments from corporations and other donors, the new group, My Brother’s Keeper Alliance, will in effect provide the nucleus for Mr. Obama’s post-presidency, which will begin in January 2017.

“This will remain a mission for me and for Michelle not just for the rest of my presidency but for the rest of my life,” Mr. Obama said. “And the reason is simple,” he added. Referring to some of the youths he had just met, he said: “We see ourselves in these young men. I grew up without a dad. I grew up lost sometimes and adrift, not having a sense of a clear path. The only difference between me and a lot of other young men in this neighborhood and all across the country is that I grew up in an environment that was a little more forgiving.”

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Organizers said the new alliance already had financial pledges from companies like American Express, Deloitte, Discovery Communications and News Corporation. The money will be used to help companies address obstacles facing young black and Hispanic men, provide grants to programs for disadvantaged youths, and help communities aid their populations.

Joe Echevarria, a former chief executive of Deloitte, the accounting and consulting firm, will lead the alliance, and among those on its leadership team or advisory group are executives at PepsiCo, News Corporation, Sprint, BET and Prudential Group Insurance; former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell; Senator Cory Booker, Democrat of New Jersey; former Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr.; the music star John Legend; the retired athletes Alonzo Mourning, Jerome Bettis and Shaquille O’Neal; and the mayors of Indianapolis, Sacramento and Philadelphia.

The alliance, while nominally independent of the White House, may face some of the same questions confronting former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton as she begins another presidential campaign. Some of those donating to the alliance may have interests in government action, and skeptics may wonder whether they are trying to curry favor with the president by contributing.

“The Obama administration will have no role in deciding how donations are screened and what criteria they’ll set at the alliance for donor policies, because it’s an entirely separate entity,” Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, told reporters on Air Force One en route to New York. But he added, “I’m confident that the members of the board are well aware of the president’s commitment to transparency.”

The alliance was in the works before the disturbances last week after the death of Freddie Gray, the black man who suffered fatal injuries while in police custody in Baltimore, but it reflected the evolution of Mr. Obama’s presidency. For him, in a way, it is coming back to issues that animated him as a young community organizer and politician. It was his own struggle with race and identity, captured in his youthful memoir, “Dreams From My Father,” that stood him apart from other presidential aspirants.

But that was a side of him that he kept largely to himself through the first years of his presidency while he focused on other priorities like turning the economy around, expanding government-subsidized health care and avoiding electoral land mines en route to re-election.

After securing a second term, Mr. Obama appeared more emboldened. Just a month after his 2013 inauguration, he talked passionately about opportunity and race with a group of teenage boys in Chicago, a moment aides point to as perhaps the first time he had spoken about these issues in such a personal, powerful way as president. A few months later, he publicly lamented the death of Trayvon Martin, a black Florida teenager, saying that “could have been me 35 years ago.”

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President Obama on Monday with Darinel Montero, a student at Bronx International High School who introduced him before remarks at Lehman College in the Bronx. Credit Stephen Crowley/The New York Times

That case, along with public ruptures of anger over police shootings in Ferguson and elsewhere, have pushed the issue of race and law enforcement onto the public agenda. Aides said they imagined that with his presidency in its final stages, Mr. Obama might be thinking more about what comes next and causes he can advance as a private citizen.

That is not to say that his public discussion of these issues has been universally welcomed. Some conservatives said he had made matters worse by seeming in their view to blame police officers in some of the disputed cases.

“President Obama, when he was elected, could have been a unifying leader,” Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, a Republican candidate for president, said at a forum last week. “He has made decisions that I think have inflamed racial tensions.”

On the other side of the ideological spectrum, some liberal African-American activists have complained that Mr. Obama has not done enough to help downtrodden communities. While he is speaking out more, these critics argue, he has hardly used the power of the presidency to make the sort of radical change they say is necessary.

The line Mr. Obama has tried to straddle has been a serrated one. He condemns police brutality as he defends most officers as honorable. He condemns “criminals and thugs” who looted in Baltimore while expressing empathy with those trapped in a cycle of poverty and hopelessness.

In the Bronx on Monday, Mr. Obama bemoaned the death of Brian Moore, a plainclothes New York police officer who had died earlier in the day after being shot in the head Saturday on a Queens street. Most police officers are “good and honest and fair and care deeply about their communities,” even as they put their lives on the line, Mr. Obama said.

“Which is why in addressing the issues in Baltimore or Ferguson or New York, the point I made was that if we’re just looking at policing, we’re looking at it too narrowly,” he added. “If we ask the police to simply contain and control problems that we ourselves have been unwilling to invest and solve, that’s not fair to the communities, it’s not fair to the police.”

Moreover, if society writes off some people, he said, “that’s not the kind of country I want to live in; that’s not what America is about.”

His message to young men like Malachi Hernandez, who attends Boston Latin Academy in Massachusetts, is not to give up.

“I want you to know you matter,” he said. “You matter to us.”

Obama Finds a Bolder Voice on Race Issues | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Jozef Paczynski, Inmate Barber to Auschwitz Commandant, Dies at 95

Mr. Paczynski was one of the concentration camp’s longest surviving inmates and served as the personal barber to its Nazi commandant Rudolf Höss.

Jozef Paczynski, Inmate Barber to Auschwitz Commandant, Dies at 95 | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Cher and Marc Jacobs

The 2015 Met Gala has only officially begun, but there's a clear leader in the race for best couple, no small feat at an event that threatens to sap Hollywood of every celebrity it has for the duration of an East Coast evening.

That would be Marc Jacobs and his surprise guest (who, by some miracle, remained under wraps until their red carpet debut), Cher.

“This has been a dream of mine for a very, very long time,” Mr. Jacobs said.

It is Cher's first appearance at the Met Gala since 1997, when she arrived on the arm of Donatella Versace.

– MATTHEW SCHNEIER

Cher and Marc Jacobs | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Tribute for a Roller Hockey Warrior

Hockey is not exactly known as a city game, but played on roller skates, it once held sway as the sport of choice in many New York neighborhoods.

“City kids had no rinks, no ice, but they would do anything to play hockey,” said Edward Moffett, former director of the Long Island City Y.M.C.A. Roller Hockey League, in Queens, whose games were played in city playgrounds going back to the 1940s.

From the 1960s through the 1980s, the league had more than 60 teams, he said. Players included the Mullen brothers of Hell’s Kitchen and Dan Dorion of Astoria, Queens, who would later play on ice for the National Hockey League.

One street legend from the heyday of New York roller hockey was Craig Allen, who lived in the Woodside Houses projects and became one of the city’s hardest hitters and top scorers.

“Craig was a warrior, one of the best roller hockey players in the city in the ’70s,” said Dave Garmendia, 60, a retired New York police officer who grew up playing with Mr. Allen. “His teammates loved him and his opponents feared him.”

Young Craig took up hockey on the streets of Queens in the 1960s, playing pickup games between sewer covers, wearing steel-wheeled skates clamped onto school shoes and using a roll of electrical tape as the puck.

His skill and ferocity drew attention, Mr. Garmendia said, but so did his skin color. He was black, in a sport made up almost entirely by white players.

“Roller hockey was a white kid’s game, plain and simple, but Craig broke the color barrier,” Mr. Garmendia said. “We used to say Craig did more for race relations than the N.A.A.C.P.”

Mr. Allen went on to coach and referee roller hockey in New York before moving several years ago to South Carolina. But he continued to organize an annual alumni game at Dutch Kills Playground in Long Island City, the same site that held the local championship games.

The reunion this year was on Saturday, but Mr. Allen never made it. On April 26, just before boarding the bus to New York, he died of an asthma attack at age 61.

Word of his death spread rapidly among hundreds of his old hockey colleagues who resolved to continue with the event, now renamed the Craig Allen Memorial Roller Hockey Reunion.

The turnout on Saturday was the largest ever, with players pulling on their old equipment, choosing sides and taking once again to the rink of cracked blacktop with faded lines and circles. They wore no helmets, although one player wore a fedora.

Another, Vinnie Juliano, 77, of Long Island City, wore his hearing aids, along with his 50-year-old taped-up quads, or four-wheeled skates with a leather boot. Many players here never converted to in-line skates, and neither did Mr. Allen, whose photograph appeared on a poster hanging behind the players’ bench.

“I’m seeing people walking by wondering why all these rusty, grizzly old guys are here playing hockey,” one player, Tommy Dominguez, said. “We’re here for Craig, and let me tell you, these old guys still play hard.”

Everyone seemed to have a Craig Allen story, from his earliest teams at Public School 151 to the Bryant Rangers, the Woodside Wings, the Woodside Blues and more.

Mr. Allen, who became a yellow-cab driver, was always recruiting new talent. He gained the nickname Cabby for his habit of stopping at playgrounds all over the city to scout players.

Teams were organized around neighborhoods and churches, and often sponsored by local bars. Mr. Allen, for one, played for bars, including Garry Owen’s and on the Fiddler’s Green Jokers team in Inwood, Manhattan.

Play was tough and fights were frequent.

“We were basically street gangs on skates,” said Steve Rogg, 56, a mail clerk who grew up in Jackson Heights, Queens, and who on Saturday wore his Riedell Classic quads from 1972. “If another team caught up with you the night before a game, they tossed you a beating so you couldn’t play the next day.”

Mr. Garmendia said Mr. Allen’s skin color provoked many fights.

“When we’d go to some ignorant neighborhoods, a lot of players would use slurs,” Mr. Garmendia said, recalling a game in Ozone Park, Queens, where local fans parked motorcycles in a lineup next to the blacktop and taunted Mr. Allen. Mr. Garmendia said he checked a player into the motorcycles, “and the bikes went down like dominoes, which started a serious brawl.”

A group of fans at a game in Brooklyn once stuck a pole through the rink fence as Mr. Allen skated by and broke his jaw, Mr. Garmendia said, adding that carloads of reinforcements soon arrived to defend Mr. Allen.

And at another racially incited brawl, the police responded with six patrol cars and a helicopter.

Before play began on Saturday, the players gathered at center rink to honor Mr. Allen. Billy Barnwell, 59, of Woodside, recalled once how an all-white, all-star squad snubbed Mr. Allen by playing him third string. He scored seven goals in the first game and made first string immediately.

“He’d always hear racial stuff before the game, and I’d ask him, ‘How do you put up with that?’” Mr. Barnwell recalled. “Craig would say, ‘We’ll take care of it,’ and by the end of the game, he’d win guys over. They’d say, ‘This guy’s good.’”

Tribute for a Roller Hockey Warrior | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Robert Patterson Jr., Lawyer and Judge Who Fought for the Accused, Dies at 91

Judge Patterson helped to protect the rights of Attica inmates after the prison riot in 1971 and later served on the Federal District Court in Manhattan.

Robert Patterson Jr., Lawyer and Judge Who Fought for the Accused, Dies at 91 | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

Police Rethink Long Tradition on Using Force

WASHINGTON — During a training course on defending against knife attacks, a young Salt Lake City police officer asked a question: “How close can somebody get to me before I’m justified in using deadly force?”

Dennis Tueller, the instructor in that class more than three decades ago, decided to find out. In the fall of 1982, he performed a rudimentary series of tests and concluded that an armed attacker who bolted toward an officer could clear 21 feet in the time it took most officers to draw, aim and fire their weapon.

The next spring, Mr. Tueller published his findings in SWAT magazine and transformed police training in the United States. The “21-foot rule” became dogma. It has been taught in police academies around the country, accepted by courts and cited by officers to justify countless shootings, including recent episodes involving a homeless woodcarver in Seattle and a schizophrenic woman in San Francisco.

Now, amid the largest national debate over policing since the 1991 beating of Rodney King in Los Angeles, a small but vocal set of law enforcement officials are calling for a rethinking of the 21-foot rule and other axioms that have emphasized how to use force, not how to avoid it. Several big-city police departments are already re-examining when officers should chase people or draw their guns and when they should back away, wait or try to defuse the situation

Police Rethink Long Tradition on Using Force | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

With Iran Talks, a Tangled Path to Ending Syria’s War

UNITED NATIONS — Wearing pinstripes and a pince-nez, Staffan de Mistura, the United Nations envoy for Syria, arrived at the Security Council one Tuesday afternoon in February and announced that President Bashar al-Assad had agreed to halt airstrikes over Aleppo. Would the rebels, Mr. de Mistura suggested, agree to halt their shelling?

What he did not announce, but everyone knew by then, was that the Assad government had begun a military offensive to encircle opposition-held enclaves in Aleppo and that fierce fighting was underway. It would take only a few days for rebel leaders, having pushed back Syrian government forces, to outright reject Mr. de Mistura’s proposed freeze in the fighting, dooming the latest diplomatic overture on Syria.

Diplomacy is often about appearing to be doing something until the time is ripe for a deal to be done.

 

 

Now, with Mr. Assad’s forces having suffered a string of losses on the battlefield and the United States reaching at least a partial rapprochement with Mr. Assad’s main backer, Iran, Mr. de Mistura is changing course. Starting Monday, he is set to hold a series of closed talks in Geneva with the warring sides and their main supporters. Iran will be among them.

In an interview at United Nations headquarters last week, Mr. de Mistura hinted that the changing circumstances, both military and diplomatic, may have prompted various backers of the war to question how much longer the bloodshed could go on.

“Will that have an impact in accelerating the willingness for a political solution? We need to test it,” he said. “The Geneva consultations may be a good umbrella for testing that. It’s an occasion for asking everyone, including the government, if there is any new way that they are looking at a political solution, as they too claim they want.”

He said he would have a better assessment at the end of June, when he expects to wrap up his consultations. That coincides with the deadline for a final agreement in the Iran nuclear talks.

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Whether a nuclear deal with Iran will pave the way for a new opening on peace talks in Syria remains to be seen. Increasingly, though, world leaders are explicitly linking the two, with the European Union’s top diplomat, Federica Mogherini, suggesting last week that a nuclear agreement could spur Tehran to play “a major but positive role in Syria.”

It could hardly come soon enough. Now in its fifth year, the Syrian war has claimed 220,000 lives, prompted an exodus of more than three million refugees and unleashed jihadist groups across the region. “This conflict is producing a question mark in many — where is it leading and whether this can be sustained,” Mr. de Mistura said.

Part Italian, part Swedish, Mr. de Mistura has worked with the United Nations for more than 40 years, but he is more widely known for his dapper style than for any diplomatic coups. Syria is by far the toughest assignment of his career — indeed, two of the organization’s most seasoned diplomats, Lakhdar Brahimi and Kofi Annan, tried to do the job and gave up — and critics have wondered aloud whether Mr. de Mistura is up to the task.

He served as a United Nations envoy in Afghanistan and Iraq, and before that in Lebanon, where a former minister recalled, with some scorn, that he spent many hours sunbathing at a private club in the hills above Beirut. Those who know him say he has a taste for fine suits and can sometimes speak too soon and too much, just as they point to his diplomatic missteps and hyperbole.

They cite, for instance, a news conference in October, when he raised the specter of Srebrenica, where thousands of Muslims were massacred in 1995 during the Balkans war, in warning that the Syrian border town of Kobani could fall to the Islamic State. In February, he was photographed at a party in Damascus, the Syrian capital, celebrating the anniversary of the Iranian revolution just as Syrian forces, aided by Iran, were pummeling rebel-held suburbs of Damascus; critics seized on that as evidence of his coziness with the government.

Mouin Rabbani, who served briefly as the head of Mr. de Mistura’s political affairs unit and has since emerged as one of his most outspoken critics, said Mr. de Mistura did not have the background necessary for the job. “This isn’t someone well known for his political vision or political imagination, and his closest confidants lack the requisite knowledge and experience,” Mr. Rabbani said.

As a deputy foreign minister in the Italian government, Mr. de Mistura was tasked in 2012 with freeing two Italian marines detained in India for shooting at Indian fishermen. He made 19 trips to India, to little effect. One marine was allowed to return to Italy for medical reasons; the other remains in India.

He said he initially turned down the Syria job when the United Nations secretary general approached him last August, only to change his mind the next day, after a sleepless, guilt-ridden night.

Mr. de Mistura compared his role in Syria to that of a doctor faced with a terminally ill patient. His goal in brokering a freeze in the fighting, he said, was to alleviate suffering. He settled on Aleppo as the location for its “fame,” he said, a decision that some questioned, considering that Aleppo was far trickier than the many other lesser-known towns where activists had negotiated temporary local cease-fires.

“Everybody, at least in Europe, are very familiar with the value of Aleppo,” Mr. de Mistura said. “So I was using that as an icebreaker.”

The cease-fire negotiations, to which he had devoted six months, fell apart quickly because of the government’s military offensive in Aleppo the very day of his announcement at the Security Council. Privately, United Nations diplomats said Mr. de Mistura had been manipulated. To this, Mr. de Mistura said only that he was “disappointed and concerned.”

Tarek Fares, a former rebel fighter, said after a recent visit to Aleppo that no Syrian would admit publicly to supporting Mr. de Mistura’s cease-fire proposal. “If anyone said they went to a de Mistura meeting in Gaziantep, they would be arrested,” is how he put it, referring to the Turkish city where negotiations between the two sides were held.

Secretary General Ban Ki-moon remains staunchly behind Mr. de Mistura’s efforts. His defenders point out that he is at the center of one of the world’s toughest diplomatic problems, charged with mediating a conflict in which two of the world’s most powerful nations — Russia, which supports Mr. Assad, and the United States, which has called for his ouster — remain deadlocked.

R. Nicholas Burns, a former State Department official who now teaches at Harvard, credited Mr. de Mistura for trying to negotiate a cease-fire even when the chances of success were exceedingly small — and the chances of a political deal even smaller. For his efforts to work, Professor Burns argued, the world powers will first have to come to an agreement of their own.

“He needs the help of outside powers,” he said. “It starts with backers of Assad. That’s Russia and Iran. De Mistura is there, waiting.”

With Iran Talks, a Tangled Path to Ending Syria’s War | PAKET UMROH BULAN JANUARI 2016

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